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John Bollman's Bet of the Day - 9/7

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies - 6:45pm ET

The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Miami Marlins today in an NL East battle in Philadelphia. The Phillies won the first game between these teams last night on a walk off. Avisail Garcia returned for the Marlins yesterday, although he didn’t contribute to any of the scoring. Nick Castellanos was recently added to the IL for the Phillies, so he wasn’t in the lineup either. That could be part of the reason why this line is lower than I expected. The Phillies are just 8-5 against the Marlins this season and 4-2 at home. However, most of those Marlins wins were towards the beginning of the season. The Phillies have now won 7 of the last 8 games between these teams. The Marlins also haven’t scored more than 3 runs in any of those 8 games. The only time they won was a 3-0 victory, and my guess is either Sandy Alcantara or Edward Cabrera was pitching (It was Cabrera after checking).

Bailey Falter has sneakily been pitching extremely well for the Phillies lately. He has now pitched four straight quality starts and those have been against good lineups like the Diamondbacks, and Mets. Today, he takes on the worst team in the league against lefties in wOBA this season and in the last 30 days. The Marlins have a .222 wOBA against lefties in the past 30 days. That is honestly, unheard of. Remember that is a weighted on base average, not a batting average. So, the Marlins are not only not hitting lefties, but when they do it is almost always for a single. Trevor Rogers is starting for the Marlins, and he is making just his second start since returning from the IL. He pitched well in his first start back, but he has struggled against the Phillies all season. He allowed four earned runs in six innings pitched to them in July, then he allowed four earned runs in 3.2 IP to them in June. He also allowed seven earned runs in 1.2 IP to the Phillies in April.

The Marlins are ranked dead last in the league in wOBA against lefties while the Phillies are ranked 6th. The Phillies are just 14-13 in the last 30 days, but they are 10-5 at home in that span. The Marlins are 6-20 in the last 30 days and 3-10 on the road. That is tied for dead last in that time span with the Pirates.

I like the Phillies at home here.

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John's Bet of the Day

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Phillies ML vs Marlins @ -165
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