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John Bollman's MLB Bet of the Day - 6/14


John's Pick

The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Miami Marlins in Game 2 of this three game series in Philadelphia. The Phillies won game one after gems by both starting pitchers in Sandy Alcantara and Aaron Nola. The Phillies won after tying the game in the bottom of the eighth inning then winning it on a walk off hit in the bottom of the 9th inning. The Phillies are now 9-1 in their last 10 games and the Marlins drop to 8-17 in one run games on the season. The Phillies are now 18-16 at home and they have been much better at home after starting the season slow. The Marlins on the other hand are just 12-18 on the road. Oddly enough, the Marlins have actually won five of the past seven games between these teams.

Trevor Rogers has been quite the conundrum this season pitching much better on the road but getting rocked at home. He is coming off a good outing against the Nationals, but they have been brutal against lefties this season. He also faced the Phillies once already this season and allowed seven earned runs in just 1.2 innings pitched. He should seriously struggle again against the lefty-crushing Phillies. Zach Eflin has been very good at home this season going 2-1 with a 1.16 ERA in five starts. He struggled against the Marlins earlier this season but that was in Miami. He allowed six hits and four earned runs in just four innings pitched. In his last home start, he pitched eight scoreless against the Angels.

Corey Knebel could be back for the Phillies after missing the past couple games with an injury, and that would be a big boost to the Phillies bullpen. They have actually been pitching much better lately after starting the season as one of the worst bullpens in the league. The Marlins bullpen doesn’t look bad when you look at their numbers. However, they always seem to give up runs when it matters. Hence, the 8-17 record in one run games. Both bullpens are in good shape tonight as both teams starting pitchers went very deep into the game last night during the pitcher’s duel. The Phillies lost three of the first four games between these teams in Miami, look for them to dish out some payback after winning game one in this series. I like the Phillies at home.

Phillies -150 vs. Marlins

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