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John Bollman’s MLB Bet of the Day - 6/21

The Colorado Rockies traveled all the way to South Beach to take on the Miami Marlins tonight.  This will be the first game of the series, and the second time these teams have matched up this season.  The Rockies actually won two of the three games in the first series.  However, the Rockies have seriously struggled losing eight of their past nine games in Miami.  The Rockies have won three games in a row, but they are just 5-5 in their last 10 games.

Daniel Castano impressed me in his last start against the Phillies and he has yet to allow an earned run in 10.2 innings this season.  The Rockies hit lefties well overall, but they are actually ranked just 14th in the league in the past 30 days, and that’s with a Coors Field boost.  Overall, they have the fourth highest wOBA in the league against lefties.  Ryan Feltner actually pitched well against the Marlins three weeks ago, but the lineup has now seen him.  He has made five starts this season and pitched very well in three of them while seriously struggling in the other two.  When he pitched well, he did pitch really well though.  The Marlins are 10-9 in June, but they are 5-2 at home in June and they are much better at home this season at 15-14.  The Rockies are much worse on the road at 11-18overall, however they are 4-3 on the road in June.​

My only concern here is the bullpens.  The Rockies have one of the worst bullpens in the league on paper, but they have actually been pitching very well lately.  On the other hand, the Marlins bullpen started off the season well, but they are seriously struggling as one of the worst bullpens in the league.  They have the second highest bullpen ERA in the league in the past 30 days while the Rockies are ranked 16th in the same time span.  

The Marlins also have a couple key players missing including Jesus Aguilar, but they have been playing much better at home all season.  I think they will turn it around now that they are at home again.  The Rockies also have a tough travel situation coming from hitting in Colorado so it could be a bit of an adjustment.  I like the Marlins to figure it out at home tonight.

Marlins -130 vs. Rockies

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