@KeepTheJuice21 +1700 Home Run Parlay & Moneyline Pick - 7/9

Schwarber is a walking bomb. An easy choice for the first leg of the parlay, Schwarber has hit 27 home runs this season and has been on an absolute tear recently, with 2 home runs in each of the first two matchups with Washington. He’ll match up with Dakota Hudson to start who he’s never faced before. No one has had much luck against Schwarber this year so I don’t expect the young pitcher to buck the trend. 

This is a two-sided pick, with Paredes facing off against Hunter Greene. Greene has talent but he’s giving up home runs like it’s nobody’s business. His season total of 22 is 4 higher than the next highest pitcher. It’s natural with his arm strength and unrefined ability but let’s take advantage while we can. Paredes is the biggest power threat on the Rays, but still provides good value based on his 13 home runs this season. 

In a flip few saw coming, the Baltimore Orioles at this point in the season have a better record than the Los Angeles Angels. The Orioles have pulled off a few impressive sweeps to keep their postseason alive. But you can count me amongst the non-believers, because I think they’re playing ahead of themselves. Dean Kremer makes the start this afternoon and has had an interesting start to the season. He came out incredibly hot with 3 shutouts in his first 5 games started. But the shoe finally dropped in his most recent start against the Rangers where he gave up 5 runs over 4.2. The expected ERA stat has Kremer at 4.79, well above his actual ERA of 2.48. This suggests at least some degree of luck in his starts. 

The Angels are on an opposite trend, playing well below the skill level of the clubhouse. The bats have been the biggest issue, averaging only 1.8 runs per game over their last 6. Mike Trout hasn’t helped the cause much but between him, Ohtani and Villar, they have a better chance of hitting Kremer than the Orioles do of taking on Sandoval. Water finds its level and the Angels should finally take this one home. 

Angels Moneyline @ -120