@KeepTheJuice21 Home Run Parlay & Pick - 7/6

Glenn Otto faces off against Spenser Watkins at Camden Yards tonight and there should be plenty of runs to spare. Otto has been spotty at best this season, with a 5.63 ERA through 46 innings. But the advanced analytics say he should be even worse. XERA (expected ERA) is essentially a stat that calculates based on the type of contact a pitcher gives up, how lucky they have gotten to have their ERA where it is. Glenn Otto doesn’t fair well in this regard, having an expected ERA of 6.65, a full point above his actual ERA which is high as it is.

The Orioles have the same problem on their side, with Spenser Watkins. His XERA has even more of a difference, with a 1.37 point gap between his ERA (4.61) and his XERA (5.91). So in total these pitchers are statistically inclined to give up almost 2.5 more points than the line would suggest. Pair that with a hitter friendly park, two serviceable offenses, and those prime time balls and we’ve got a great recipe for an over.

Over 9.5 runs | -106 at FanDuel

We’ve got a longshot HR parlay today but don’t let the high payout drive you away. Let’s start with Matt Olson in the prime time home matchup. The lefty will have the platoon advantage against Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas and most of the St Louis bullpen. Mikolas is no slouch but he gets hit hard. His hard hit rate sits in the 81 st percentile, meaning very few pitchers are hit as hard as him. And it shows with 9 home runs surrendered this season.

If you haven’t heard of Oneil Cruz yet, you’re not paying good enough attention. The 6’7 shortstop was pulled up to the Pirates roster in June and would be the tallest shortstop to finish the season in MLB history. His throws have made highlights and his hits are monstrous. He has 3 home runs in his last 8 games but his odds to go yard are still around the mid +500’s. Pick up on the kid while you can, he’s going to light up the league.

Matt Olson / Oneil Cruz | +2652 at FanDuel