Glenn Otto faces off against Spenser Watkins at Camden Yards tonight and there should be plenty of runs to spare. Otto has been spotty at best this season, with a 5.63 ERA through 46 innings. But the advanced analytics say he should be even worse. XERA (expected ERA) is essentially a stat that calculates based on the type of contact a pitcher gives up, how lucky they have gotten to have their ERA where it is. Glenn Otto doesn’t fair well in this regard, having an expected ERA of 6.65, a full point above his actual ERA which is high as it is.
The Orioles have the same problem on their side, with Spenser Watkins. His XERA has even more of a difference, with a 1.37 point gap between his ERA (4.61) and his XERA (5.91). So in total these pitchers are statistically inclined to give up almost 2.5 more points than the line would suggest. Pair that with a hitter friendly park, two serviceable offenses, and those prime time balls and we’ve got a great recipe for an over.
Over 9.5 runs | -106 at FanDuel