@KeepTheJuice21 Home Run Parlay & Pick - 7/7

The rare same game home run parlay. There’s no team that looks better to hit big today than the LA Angels. The Orioles have surprised recently, winning a good stretch of games and 4 in a row at home. But the home park is ripe for home runs, and the Angels have the personnel to take advantage. The Orioles tend to be streaky and if they lose control, they lose it big. If there are two hitters on the Angels to trust in, its Shohei and Trout.

Trout has been in his typical excellent form, with 23 home runs on the season. He hasn’t been to a hitter’s park in a while, with series against Miami, Houston, Chicago and Seattle recently. The same obviously goes for Shohei but he actually managed a few more home runs over that same stretch. The two definitely seem to feed off each other and that’s why I’m more than willing to accept a slight odds charge for the same game parlay.

Diamondbacks Moneyline | +100

We’re going with the home team tonight and a big part of the reason why is Arizona’s starter Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel is certainly aging and doesn’t have what he used to, but the advanced metrics are on his side. He’s got a 3.59 run difference between expected ERA and ERA, the second highest in the league. That suggests his luck-adjusted ERA should be closer to 4.5 than his actual 8.3. Now 4.5 isn’t great, but it now puts him well above the opponent in Austin Gomber by comparison. Accounting for this, we can look at the hitting, which clearly gives the advantage to Arizona. Colorado can score runs, but they fair much worse when playing away from home. Arizona has been shockingly consistent lately, averaging 6.7 runs over their last 6 games, including 3 against the Rockies. My bet is that they come out strong against the division rival and win this series handily.