@KeepTheJuice21's +2485 Home Run Parlay & Padres @ Marlins Prediction - 8/15

Following a streaky player is a typically a good recipe for a home run bet. And there is no better streaker than Hunter Renfroe. Of his 20 home runs this year, 13 have come with another homer within a game of it. That is to say only 7 of his home runs didn’t have another coming before or after it. And He hit a 2 run bomb last night in St Louis. Julio Urias is a tough matchup but he’s far from home run proof, with 15 surrendered this season.

Speaking of streaks, Alex Bregman is on a tear of his own. With 3 home runs in the last 4 games he is clearly getting great contact. He doesn’t look like your typical power hitter but he’s extremely hot recently and provides great value in the parlay. Johnny Cueto is one of the better options for the White Sox but struggled in his last few starts, giving up 35 hits in his last 4 starts. Although it only translated to 12 total runs, he’s statistically due for regression. Bregman should be able to take advantage, especially if their trash can drummer is on his game.

On the surface this shouldn’t be a really interesting game. The Marlins stink and the Padres are great, it should be a blowout. But Sandy Alcantara makes it interesting. The Cy Young favorite is untouchable this year, with a 2.0 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. His last start against Philadelphia was his worst of the season and he only gave up 4 runs over almost 8 innings. At the level he’s playing, it seems extremely unlikely that he has two bad performances in a row. The most impressive thing about Alcantara this year might be the level of opponents he’s faced. Of his 23 starts, 14 have been against teams that are currently in place to make the playoffs. The Padres are facing some controversy with the Tatis suspension and any distraction will add to the case for the best pitcher in baseball right now.

On the other side, the Padres start Joe Musgrove who is having an excellent season of his own. It’s not at the level of Alcantara but luckily he gets to face one of the worst lineups in the league. The Marlins cannot hit recently, averaging 1.8 runs over their last 15 games and with no games over 3 runs. The only chance they get is from their pitching. If you think the Padres can get 4 runs off Alcantara then be my guest and hop on the over. But everything points down to me.