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@RyanPropz Diamondbacks @ Cubs K Prop Pick - 5/20

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Ryan

Arizona Diamondbacks (19-21) @ Chicago Cubs (15-22)

Humberto Castellanos is far from a household name in this league but I still think there is some value in his props today. A reliever transformed into a starter has actually put together a solid stretch. He is 1-0 with a 2.76  ERA in 3 May starts, picking up 13 strikeouts in 16.1 innings along the way. His line is plus odds for him to get 4 K today, something he has done in three straight and 4 out of 5. In his last start he threw a career high 92 pitches (against the Cubs), a significant feat for someone as they transition roles into a starter. He is now on what appears to be a full workload, so 4 K is very manageable especially vs the Cubbies. 

The Cubs are dead last in K% vs righties over the last 30 days. They have been a great target to begin the season, and I think Humberto can pick up a few K along this way vs this lineup. The lineup has three guys (Rivas, Wisdom, and Villar) who sport a K% of 29.3% or worse. The lineup as a whole has 621 plate appearances vs right handed pitching this season, accumulating 166 strikeouts. That is a 26.7% rate. Castellanos is not a great strikeout pitcher, but I can not sit out a 3.5 line vs this lineup this afternoon. It may not be pretty, and I think the Cubs take him deep once or twice, but that should not be enough to stop him from getting 4 strikeouts.

Ryan's Pick

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Humberto Castellanos over 3.5 strikeouts @ +106
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