@RyanPropz Padres @ Phillies K Prop Pick - 5/19

Ryan Propz | @ryanpropz

San Diego Padres (23-14) @ Philadelphia Phillies (18-19)

In year 2 with the Padres, one thing remains consistent for Yu Darvish. He struggles on the road. Last season he was 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA in 13 starts, and this season he is 1-1 with a 7.91 ERA. This afternoon, he faces a dangerous Phillies offense on a beautiful day at Citizens Bank Park. 

As for his strikeouts, they are noticeably down this season. He is averaging .82 K per inning in 39 innings so far this year, and .74 K per inning on the road. He is in the 34th percentile in K%, 45th percentile in whiff%, and 19th percentile in chase rate. He just has not been missing bats like we are accustomed to seeing from the 35 year old. Over the last 2 seasons, Yu has only recorded 7 or more K on the road in 3 of 17 starts, and 0/4 this season. 

The Phillies are 7th in the league in runs per game, 6th in home runs per game, 11th in on base %, and 3rd in slugging %. They have a strong lineup, and there is a shot the MVP, Bryce Harper, returns to that lineup today. They only have a K% of 23.2% vs right handed pitching for the year which has dropped to 22.5% over the last 30 days. I think they will make it tough on Yu to rack up strikeouts, and they have the potent offense to knock him out of the game early. 

Ryan's Pick

fanduel

YU DARVISH UNDER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS @ -128

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