@RyanPropz Phillies @ Brewers K Prop Pick - 6/9

Ryan Dolan | @ryanpropz

Philadelphia Phillies (27-29) @ Milwaukee Brewers (33-25)

Writing about a guy like Corbin Burnes is so much fun. There are countless beautiful statistics from him that it is almost amazing he does not have 12 strikeouts every game. Oddly enough, it almost feels like he is in a mini slump after allowing 4+ earned runs in 2 of last 4 starts. He has not had many massive K games lately either. Despite this, he still ranks 13th in the league in ERA and 3rd in the league in K. Regardless of his recent stretch, I think he has the potential to have a big afternoon. 

It is tough to decide where to start with Burnes. He strikes out more batters at home, and his K numbers in day games have been eye popping throughout his career. At home, he averages 1.4 K per inning. So far this season during day games, he averages 1.2 K per inning through 25 innings after an incredible 1.53 K per inning last season. 

He has hit his over 7.5 in 3 out of 5 home starts, having 10+ in those 3. He currently sits in the 91st percentile in K%, 98th percentile in whiff%, and 94th percentile in chase rate. Partner these stats with the Phils having the 11th worst chase contact percentage and 7th worst whiff%, and Corbin could be in for a big day. 

Corbin has a 31.6% K rate vs lefties and a 31.1% K rate vs righties so he should have no trouble with a balanced Phillies lineup. While the Phillies lineup is not currently out, I think we see at least 5 great targets. Schwarber and Hoskins have been batting 1-2, both terrific targets, and the Phillies have been ending their lineup with some young prospects with huge K rates that Burnes could feast on. The Phillies have the 8th most K per game in the league at 8.84. There are not many guys that you “buy low” on a 7.5 line, but I will do just that with Burnes today. 

Corbin Burnes over 7.5 strikeouts -112 Fanduel Sportsbook

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