Capper Penguin's Thursday Double NBA Ladder Play - 11/3

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Thursday Night's Double NBA Ladder Play

Everyone and their mom knew this was coming, but I added a unique little spin based on the books' overcompensation to the Josh Giddey return. The points angle should be rather obvious, we cashed out on Shai twice already this year including a ladder and it's tough to believe he won't do it again at home against Denver. He's covered this point line in his last 10 of 11 games at home averaging 32.09 points per game. He's covered in his last 6 of 7 overall and hit 30+ points in 5 of them. So he's more consistent (still consistent regardless) at home and he's facing a Denver team that he's not only covered against in his last two games, but who has been giving the 4th most points and 3s to point guards.

Now let me explain the assists. The books think Shai won't have the ball in his hands as much since Josh Giddey is back, and this might be true to a certain extent, but the offense still runs through Shai. We saw this in the last game (Josh played) when Shai went for 34 and 6 and most games with Josh Giddey. Shai's assist line without Josh Giddey was 6.5 and it dropped to 5.5 for +money. Shai covers this 5.5 line in his last 2 games with Giddey, had 7 vs Denver last game with Giddey on the floor, averages 7.25 APG vs Denver, and he's hit this line in his last 5 of 5 games overall. Josh Giddey loves to pass the ball and will get assists tonight, but Shai is still going to have the ball in his hands to drive and distribute at his discretion. The books overcompensated too much for me on this one.

RIDING WITH SHAI UNTIL THE WHEELS FALL OFF!

Points Ladder Rung #1

betmgm

SHAI GILGEOUS ALEXANDER OVER 27.5 POINTS @ -105

Points Ladder Rung #2

bet365

SHAI GILGEOUS ALEXANDER 30+ POINTS (0.4 UNITS) @ +155

Assists Ladder Rung #1

draftkings

SHAI OVER 5.5 ASSISTS (0.5 UNITS) @ +105

Assists Ladder Rung #2

bet365

SHAI 7+ ASSISTS (0.2 UNITS) @ +215

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