@KeepTheJuice21 NBA Playoff Picks - 5/10

There are a few factors looking good for the Heat tonight. Although it was pre-Embiid, the Heat looked excellent at home in the first two games of the series. Game 5 when tied is often the best indicator of who will win the series, so you can count on both teams playing with high intensity. The biggest difference once Embiid came back is that the quality of the looks for other players have gotten so much better. But as Lowry is getting healthier and the team gets used to playing a different game, things have gotten better. Look at the adjustments in Game 4 and how much better the offense functioned. Tonight will really be Game 3, of the series with Embiid, and Miami has improved gradually to where a homecoming win feels very likely.

I want to lean Suns in this game with a bounce back at home, but it’s hard to ignore the offensive prowess Dallas has shown. The defense we’ve seen all year, but the Luka/Brunson combo attack has been very difficult to defend and Reggie Bullock has been a revelation. Dallas clearly has the best player on the floor in Luka and the supporting cast is closer than it originally looked. When they go small with Kleber, which they’ve done more and more, Ayton looks very out of place. The Suns chance in this is heavily tied to Chris Paul and his best output is running an efficient offense. The mismatches on the floor when exploited properly lead to a lot of points from both sides, which is what I expect tonight. Parlay this with the Suns money line if you’re feeling dangerous.