There are a few factors looking good for the Heat tonight. Although it was pre-Embiid, the Heat looked excellent at home in the first two games of the series. Game 5 when tied is often the best indicator of who will win the series, so you can count on both teams playing with high intensity. The biggest difference once Embiid came back is that the quality of the looks for other players have gotten so much better. But as Lowry is getting healthier and the team gets used to playing a different game, things have gotten better. Look at the adjustments in Game 4 and how much better the offense functioned. Tonight will really be Game 3, of the series with Embiid, and Miami has improved gradually to where a homecoming win feels very likely.