I value consistency, which keeps leading me back to #37 on the Boston Bruins. In his last 10 games, he’s averaging 4.8 shots on goal (SOG), covering this 3.5 line in 8 of the 10 (80%).
Normally I prefer to target Bergeron in his home games where this has a 64% hit rate vs. just 44% on the road. Tonight, he’s on the road but gets a juicy matchup vs. Columbus who are allowing 32.9 SOG per game in their last 10 home (8th most).
This is the 2nd game of a home and home between Boston and Columbus, meaning they just faced off last game, and Bergeron had 4 SOG. That game was played in Boston. When these teams met in Ohio last month, Bergeron had 6 SOG, effectively bucking the trend on his home/road split. Including that game, he’s finished with no less than 6 SOG (+2.5 vs. line) in 3 straight road games, leaving me eager to back him at the reasonable price of -120 tonight.