@FastMoneyLabs’ NHL Prop Pick - 5/10

Boston and Carolina return to Raleigh tonight with the series deadlocked at 2 games apiece.

After the Canes took a commanding 2-0 series lead, Boston stormed back to even the series by capitalizing on home ice advantage. Tonight, home ice advantage returns to Carolina, but Boston carries momentum going into this pivotal Game 5.

Boston’s swift turnaround should not be too surprising. Shots aren’t the best predictor of game outcomes, but Boston had consistently outshot Carolina throughout the year (both regular season and playoffs). Yet they continued to be outscored. It wasn’t a sustainable trend, and a correction felt somewhat imminent.

The Bruins’ coaching staff also took a strategic leap in Game 3 that paid dividends. They reunited their superstar trio of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, collectively referred to as the “Perfection Line,” to ensure they were on the ice together in 5v5 play.

The decision paid off, as the Perfection Line combined for a whopping 16 points in just 2 games since the change. Tonight, all indications are that they’ll be skating together again.

The Hurricanes have a smart, respected coaching staff. Without question they’ve been drawing up game plans to stop the bleeding since the moment Game 4 ended. I won’t be shocked if they find a way to slow the Perfection Line down in 5v5 play — especially at home (which gives the Canes the benefit of the last line change). That’s only half the battle though.

The Hurricanes’ real issue is their tendency to take too many penalties. When you’re consistently playing a man down, stopping the Perfection Line becomes a much tougher task.

I don’t expect another 16 point performance from Boston’s superstars. Luckily, we don’t need 16 tonight. We just need one to cash a player prop ticket.

And of the choices for Boston scoring props, my top option is to back Brad Marchand to record an assist. He’s tallied 5 helpers in just 2 games since the lineup change. Even before the change he was cashing this prop with regularity. Betting Brad Marchand to record an assist is 7-1 in his last 8 games (regular season + playoffs).

If you’re feeling risky, I noticed 5 of his 6 assists in the series came on the Power Play. You can get slightly better odds for him to record a Power Play Point (+140). But in the spirit of simplicity, I prefer the low-hanging fruit in what I see as a bet Marchand will record an assist at +112 odds available at time of writing (FanDuel).

Bet responsibly & best of luck tonight fam. Let’s stay winning.