@FastMoneyLabs’ Top Player Props - 3/30

If you believe in home/road splits, chances are you will like this bet. It has a 65% hit rate in his home games this year vs. just 29% on the road.

If you believe in the concept of ‘buying the dip’, you might also like this bet, because Thompson was held ‘under’ in 2 straight games, but they were both road games. Tonight, they’re back home to take on the Winnipeg Jets (WPG).

In their last 10 road games, WPG allowed 34.7 SOG per 60 mins (6th most).

• In an earlier season matchup vs. them, Buffalo’s 6’7” forward recorded 5 shots on goal (SOG), and it was a Sabres road game.
• When Thompson covers his shots on goal prop on the road, you know it’s a good matchup for him.
• Now that they’re back home, I like his chances of clearing it again.

Since March 1st, this prop bet is 4-2 in Buffalo home games. Recent victims include:

• Pittsburgh (3/23): 5 shots on goal
• Toronto (3/13): 4 shots on goal
• Florida (3/7): 5 shots on goal
• Minnesota (3/4): 7 shots on goal

4+ shots feels like a lot, but I like the value at +130 today. If you’re feeling risky, Tage Thompson to score a goal (+176 at FanDuel) has decent value today, too.

Sticking with the BUF/WPG game, I like #55 on the Winnipeg Jets to record an assist. He’s tallied at least one in 4 of his last 5 games. I was close to adding this last game but am glad I didn’t, because it missed. Today presents us with a nice spot to buy back in.

Scheifele’s chemistry with linemate Nikolaj Ehlers (6 goals in his last 8 games) is really clicking right now. He also has a key role on WPG’s 1st Power Play unit.

Tonight, WPG’s top scorer Kyle Conner is OUT. That means Scheifele’s line should see a slight uptick in minutes and feel more of a burden to contribute scoring.

He didn’t find the scoresheet in their December matchup, but Scheifele recorded an assist in 3 of his last 4 vs. Buffalo (including the one miss this year).

Buffalo’s projected starting goalie Craig Anderson (12-9-1, 3.13 GAA, 0.901 SV%) has been solid this year but is coming off a game where he allowed 5 goals to the New York Rangers. I’m not too worried about him tonight and expect WPG to light the lamp a couple times. If I’m right, I like Scheifele’s chances to find the scoresheet.

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