$FML's NHL Best Bet for Monday Night - 3/27

Two brothers. . . One dream.

Their respective clubs are officially on the ropes (Brady Tkachuk more-so than Matthew)… and when the Tkachuk bros feel cornered, they start swinging. Brady’s averaging 4.8 shots on goal per game in his last 10 (5th in the NHL). Matthew’s averaging 4.5 (7th). Tonight they clash.

In 16 career H2H matchups: they’re landing 3.4 shots/each per game. If we bet the 4+ shots parlay every time, we’d be a mix of poor (3-13, 18.75%) and cranky (4 of the parlays missed by a single shot.. meaning one guy covered, the other finished with 3). Luckily we didn’t… and now the parlay feels due.

Looking at individual stats this season: Brady’s eclipsing 4+ shots in 69.2% of home games (career best; +23.2% vs. last year). More recently it improved four points to 73% in his last 30 home. And Matthew’s clearing 4+ shots at a 72% rate in his last 25 games overall regardless of location.

Matthew’s full-season numbers away from home are underwhelming (just 40% @ the 3.5 line). That’s the risk. However, I feel it’s offset by momentum (remember… he ranks #7 league-wide in shots L10 games) plus the brotherly competition and situation tonight. If paying Brady a lil visit doesn’t make Matthew feel right at home tonight, I don’t know what will.

IMPORTANT: for the best odds… grab this bet in the Player Performance Parlays section at FanDuel (screenshot below). I personally risked a full unit to win 1.6 units @ +160. If you can’t get better than +150, I’d either hold off or lower the bet size to 0.5 units.

IMPORTANT: for the best odds… grab this bet in the Player Performance Parlays section at FanDuel (screenshot below). I personally risked a full unit to win 1.6 units @ +160. If you can’t get better than +150, I’d either hold off or lower the bet size to 0.5 units.

The Pick: Matthew & Brady Tkachuk 4+ Shots Each (+160)