$FML's NHL Best Bets for Wednesday Night - 3/29

Availabe on Barstool Sportsbook, BetRivers and SugarHouse

Florida needs this game like a fish needs water! I see 3 keys to victory:

1. Convert Power Play Opportunities: Last 8 chances? 0 goals.
2. Stay Out of the Penalty Box: Last 3 games? Allowed 4 PPG on 7 chances (43% PK rate).
3. Competent Goaltending: Last 10 games? Surrendering 3.85 goals per 60 minutes (6th most).

Good news: The law of averages supports #1. Florida converts ~22% of PPOs this year but failed to convert on 8 straight? Am I crazy to think they’re due? Bad news: #2 might be a lost cause, and #3 isn’t a quick fix.

• The Panthers commit the 3rd most penalties (3.73/game), and Toronto ranks 2nd in Power Play Offense.
• Sergei Bobrovsky, a 2x Vezina trophy winner, looks like a shell of his former self between the pipes, and Toronto has his number (allowed 4+ g’s in 5 of their last 8 meetings).

These 3 concepts point to value in the Power Play Prop, and it’s 4-1 in their last 5 meetings…

• 3/23/23: 2 PPG
• 1/17/23: 3 PPG
• 4/23/22: 1 PPG
• 4/5/22: 6 PPG
• 3/27/22: 2 PPG

Will it hit every game? Probably not, but at +110 odds… I’ll roll the dice every time! (risk 1U to win 1.1U).

Odds widely available

8 of the last 9 Panthers/Leafs meetings had 7+ total goals. Tonight’s scoring outlook is equally bright (oddsmakers set the game total to o/u 7).

High scoring games pair well with assist props, and Rielly’s arguably the best value for the price in that category. Betting him to record an assist is a perfect 10-0 in his last 10 H2H vs. Florida.

He’s averaging 23.5 minutes of ice time vs. the Panthers in the last 2 seasons. That’s nearly half the game. He’s playing a little less in 5v5 since trade deadline but remains a staple on Toronto’s 1st Power Play Unit. I’m optimistic about Toronto’s Power Play tonight, which makes Rielly a good option to record a point… and 90% of his points are coming via assist this season. If he fails to get a Power Play Assist, he could easily split the difference in 5v5, too.

The Leafs’ blue line combined for 3 assists vs. the Panthers just 9 days ago. Rielly missed that game. Now he’s back, and I’m willing to bet he joins the party! (1U for me)