$FML's NHL Best Bets for Wednesday Night - 3/29

$FML is on a 6-2 article run! Let's add to the win pile with these two plus money Best Bets for tonight's NHL!

⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+

Panthers/Leafs Over 1.5 Power Play Goals (+110)

Availabe on Barstool Sportsbook, BetRivers and SugarHouse

Florida needs this game like a fish needs water! I see 3 keys to victory:

  1. Convert Power Play Opportunities: Last 8 chances? 0 goals.
  2. Stay Out of the Penalty Box: Last 3 games? Allowed 4 PPG on 7 chances (43% PK rate).
  3. Competent Goaltending: Last 10 games? Surrendering 3.85 goals per 60 minutes (6th most).

Good news: The law of averages supports #1. Florida converts ~22% of PPOs this year but failed to convert on 8 straight? Am I crazy to think they’re due? Bad news: #2 might be a lost cause, and #3 isn’t a quick fix.

  • The Panthers commit the 3rd most penalties (3.73/game), and Toronto ranks 2nd in Power Play Offense.
  • Sergei Bobrovsky, a 2x Vezina trophy winner, looks like a shell of his former self between the pipes, and Toronto has his number (allowed 4+ g’s in 5 of their last 8 meetings).

These 3 concepts point to value in the Power Play Prop, and it’s 4-1 in their last 5 meetings…

  • 3/23/23: 2 PPG
  • 1/17/23: 3 PPG
  • 4/23/22: 1 PPG
  • 4/5/22: 6 PPG
  • 3/27/22: 2 PPG

Will it hit every game? Probably not, but at +110 odds… I’ll roll the dice every time! (risk 1U to win 1.1U).

Morgan Rielly (TOR) to record an Assist (+100)

Odds widely available

8 of the last 9 Panthers/Leafs meetings had 7+ total goals. Tonight’s scoring outlook is equally bright (oddsmakers set the game total to o/u 7).

High scoring games pair well with assist props, and Rielly’s arguably the best value for the price in that category. Betting him to record an assist is a perfect 10-0 in his last 10 H2H vs. Florida.

He’s averaging 23.5 minutes of ice time vs. the Panthers in the last 2 seasons. That’s nearly half the game. He’s playing a little less in 5v5 since trade deadline but remains a staple on Toronto’s 1st Power Play Unit. I’m optimistic about Toronto’s Power Play tonight, which makes Rielly a good option to record a point… and 90% of his points are coming via assist this season. If he fails to get a Power Play Assist, he could easily split the difference in 5v5, too.

The Leafs’ blue line combined for 3 assists vs. the Panthers just 9 days ago. Rielly missed that game. Now he’s back, and I’m willing to bet he joins the party! (1U for me)

$FML Best Bet #1

betrivers

PANTHERS/MAPLE LEAFS OVER 1.5 POWER PLAY GOALS @ +110

$FML Best Bet #2

bet365

MORGAN RIELLY (TOR) TO RECORD AN ASSIST @ +100

$500 2nd Chance Bet in Virginia
CLAIM NOW
You are welcome to register from any state in the U.S., but must be 21+ years old and physically located in VA to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, Call 1-800 GAMBLER. 21+.
Panthers

FLA

-128

o5.5

Golden Knights

VGK

+104

u5.5

NHL | Tue 06/06, 12:00 AM

Free Bets & Offers


Virginia: Bet $1 on Anything & Get $200 Guaranteed
Deposit required. Bonus Bets winnings are added to Bonus Bets balance. Bonus Bet wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. CO, NJ, OH & VA only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler. 21+
CLAIM NOW
Virginia: Bet $20, Win $200 in Free Bets
Promo Code: GET100. New users in VA. 21+.
CLAIM NOW
Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
$1,000 in Bonus Bets on any Sport in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
Get up to $100 in Bonus Bets
21+ Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Claim Now
⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

21+
800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER
State Selector
Virginia
Disclaimer

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2023 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.8.6 (1)