$FML's NHL Thursday Best Bet - 3/2

FastMoneyLabs is keeping the Best Bet rolling for Thursday's NHL slate with a two-leg parlay!

⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+

Leg 1: Predators @ Panthers

He‘s fresh off an Achilles injury, which is a little concerning on the surface (see Max Pacioretty), but for what it’s worth: Duclair’s looked really good so far in limited action, logging 14 shot attempts (7.0/GP), 9 shots on target (4.5/GP), scoring a goal and adding an assist in 2 games played.
Looking ahead to tonight: Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov (8th on team in shots) and forward Sam Bennett (4th) are both officially OUT again, cementing Duclair’s Top-6 role in 5v5 situations (effectively guaranteeing 15+ minutes of ice time). He’s also a threat to shoot on Florida’s 2nd Power Play unit, and Nashville takes the 7 most penalties this season.

Icing on the cake: the Predators are leaking the 5th most shots in their last 10 road games (34.97 per 60 minutes), and that number might rise as the team’s been selling at the trade deadline — effectively waiving the white flag on playoff contention.

Pick: Anthony Duclair (FLA) over 1.5 Shots (-185)

Leg 2: Sabres @ Bruins

The NHL’s premier team hit this Alternate Line in 50 of 60 (83.3%) contests this season. Using a simple odds calculator, we can estimate fair odds for a 83.3% hit rate bet are around -499 (+1.8% edge vs. listed price). Buffalo meanwhile allows 3.51 goals per game (8th most) and 4.30 since February 1st (literally the most).

That all sounds fantastic, which begs the question: why the heck would books offer a discounted price vs. Buffalo? While I don’t know for certain, it’s likely because Boston’s playing its 3rd game in 4 nights, and fatigue —generally speaking— can suppress offense. The Bruins are a resilient group though, and I find they’re somewhat immune to the fatigue effect. Looking back 2 seasons, they’re scoring 3.8 goals per game under these rest conditions (4th most in the league), hitting this Alt Line 80% of the time.

Pick: Boston Bruins over 2.5 Goals (-440)

Moneyline works too, but in spirit of safety: I’m taking a “layup” via the Team Total market at DraftKings.

fastmoneylabs draftkings nhl parlay
Bet $5 on any pre-game moneyline & Win $150 in Virginia
CLAIM NOW
New users in VA. 21+

Free Bets & Offers


Virginia: Bet $1 on anything & Get $365 Guaranteed
Deposit required. Bonus Bets winnings are added to Bonus Bets balance. Bonus Bet wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. CO, NJ, OH & VA only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler. 21+
CLAIM NOW
Virginia: Bet $20, Win $200 in Free Bets
Promo Code: GET100. New users in VA. 21+.
CLAIM NOW
Bet $5 on any pre-game moneyline & Win $150 in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
$1,000 in Bonus Bets on any Sport in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

21+
800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER
State Selector
Virginia
Disclaimer

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2023 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.8.5 (1)