$FML's NHL Thursday Best Bet - 3/2

FastMoneyLabs is keeping the Best Bet rolling for Thursday's NHL slate with a two-leg parlay!

He‘s fresh off an Achilles injury, which is a little concerning on the surface (see Max Pacioretty), but for what it’s worth: Duclair’s looked really good so far in limited action, logging 14 shot attempts (7.0/GP), 9 shots on target (4.5/GP), scoring a goal and adding an assist in 2 games played.
Looking ahead to tonight: Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov (8th on team in shots) and forward Sam Bennett (4th) are both officially OUT again, cementing Duclair’s Top-6 role in 5v5 situations (effectively guaranteeing 15+ minutes of ice time). He’s also a threat to shoot on Florida’s 2nd Power Play unit, and Nashville takes the 7 most penalties this season.

Icing on the cake: the Predators are leaking the 5th most shots in their last 10 road games (34.97 per 60 minutes), and that number might rise as the team’s been selling at the trade deadline — effectively waiving the white flag on playoff contention.

Pick: Anthony Duclair (FLA) over 1.5 Shots (-185)

The NHL’s premier team hit this Alternate Line in 50 of 60 (83.3%) contests this season. Using a simple odds calculator, we can estimate fair odds for a 83.3% hit rate bet are around -499 (+1.8% edge vs. listed price). Buffalo meanwhile allows 3.51 goals per game (8th most) and 4.30 since February 1st (literally the most).

That all sounds fantastic, which begs the question: why the heck would books offer a discounted price vs. Buffalo? While I don’t know for certain, it’s likely because Boston’s playing its 3rd game in 4 nights, and fatigue —generally speaking— can suppress offense. The Bruins are a resilient group though, and I find they’re somewhat immune to the fatigue effect. Looking back 2 seasons, they’re scoring 3.8 goals per game under these rest conditions (4th most in the league), hitting this Alt Line 80% of the time.

Pick: Boston Bruins over 2.5 Goals (-440)

Moneyline works too, but in spirit of safety: I’m taking a “layup” via the Team Total market at DraftKings.