$FML's Thursday NHL Best Bet - 2/16

Thu 16 Feb 2023 17.35

FastMoneyLabs has been SO close, missing the last two article plays by just a single shot but he's back with a vengeance to take on Thursday's NHL slate.

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Under in 3 straight, but they were tougher opponents (Washington Capitals, New York Rangers) and an away game (Buffalo Sabres).

Both factors flip in Aho’s favor tonight. Carolina’s back home, where this prop is 6-1 (86%) in Aho’s last 7; it’s also 8-0 (100%) H2H vs. Montreal since December 2019.

Lifting the hood on the matchup: I like how Montreal is known to take penalties, and Aho’s a consistent Power Play producer. The Canadiens are also weak on Power Play Offense, and Aho’s an elite Penalty Killer with a knack for stealing shots man-down. Even if both clubs stay disciplined — it shouldn’t matter. #20 is equally, if not more, electric in 5v5.

His next-level versatility, matchup history and home/road splits all support this pick!

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Running this back from Monday! Toffoli’s really feelin’ it, and that might be an understatement. Dude’s practically picking corners in his sleep at this point.

He stacked 5 goals in their recent road trip, including a multi-goal performance. Tonight he returns home, where his 3+ shot prop is cashing at a 72% clip this season.

Detroit’s in town, and they were pummeled last night with 45 shots. The game went to OT vs. a fast Edmonton team, and fatigue will likely weigh on the Wings here.

The hosting Flames meanwhile are rested, and I’m willing to bet Toffoli is primed to stay hot. He’s cleared his 3+ shot prop in 11 of his last 12 games now (both home and away). The only miss was — ironically — vs. this Detroit team, but don’t be fooled. It was clearly a fluke. He attempted 9 shots that night, but only 2 hit target. The chances were there, and that’s what really counts when evaluating a matchup.

Bottom line: I like the Flames’ chances to dominate tonight; and even if they don’t: Toffoli should record at least 3+ shots.

I got +171 for the parlay at Draftkings Sportsbook and risked a full unit to win 1.71U. I love this ticket, but parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy. Please remember to bet responsibly if tailing & best of luck!