@TonesTakes Stanley Cup Game 5 Picks - 6/24

To be the best, you've got to beat the best. Tonight, the Colorado Avalanche find themselves one win away from knocking off the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning. Home ice has proven to be a huge advantage for the Avalanche throughout their playoff run. They have a 7-2 overall home record, with two home wins in this series in which they outscored the Lightning 11-3. With an opportunity to win the Stanley Cup in front of their home fans tonight, I expect the Avs to come out with their most spirited game yet.

The Avalanche's offensive output at home has certainly been a key to their success. Their fast-paced attack has been humming at home in the postseason where they have scored 40 goals total and averaged 4.44 goals per home game. I know the champs are a tough, gritty bunch, but I feel that the speed and relentless offensive pressure has just proven to be too much for the Bolts to handle. Plus, it seems the Avs have been able to consistently do the impossible: get to Andrei Vasilevskiy who appears to be human after all.

Although the Lightning walk into Ball Arena as Stanley Cup champions prior to puck drop tonight, I anticipate that title changing hands when the Avalanche hoist the Cup above their heads after their 8th home victory. The youth, the speed, the hunger, and energy from a rabid fan base should propel Colorado to a Stanley Cup title. And being an elimination game, there is a big opportunity for empty net goals that will easily push this over the alternate total of 4.5.

With the aforementioned success and prowess the Avs offense have shown at home, the Avs to score in each period is certainly a bonus play worth considering. Even if the Avs jump out to an early lead, I don't think there will be any let up in this close-out game. They hit this in their 7-0 Game 2 romp, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this cash again tonight.

• Avs to win and over 4.5 goals @ +105
• Avs goal in each period @ +210