Capper Penguin's MLB Saturday Pick: Royals @ Giants - 4/8

We already cashed out on the under 2.5 earned run prop for Brady Singer in his last start and I'm rolling with him again vs Sean Manaea. Manaea came out of the bullpen last game for 2 innings in his first game with the Giants and gave up 3 runs in 2 innings pitched and is currently sporting a 13.5 ERA because of it. He probably just didn't like coming out of the bullpen, but I can't expect a huge bounce back since he doesn't have great history vs the Royals. He got torched for 6 runs in just 4 innings in his last start vs the Royals (August 2022) and he'll see a lot of the same guys in his first start for San Francisco.

On the other side, Brady Singer had a quality first start and a great Spring Training and has much better history vs the Giants. He allowed just one run to the Toronto Blue Jays in his only start and allowed just 2 runs total in his last 3 Spring Training games (11 innings pitched). He's in great form and out of the 5 guys on the San Francisco Giants that have faced him in the past, most of them have never gotten a hit off of him. The rest of the team haven't seen Singer yet. The price is leaning towards SFG because they scored 16 and 12 runs vs the White Sox, but the Giants are also very capable of going cold scoring 0, 3 and 1 (last game vs Royals) runs in 3 of their last 5 games.

The Royals won the first half 7-1 in Brady's last start and although I don't think it'll be that lopsided, I lean with the pitcher who is in better form and has the better matchup history. And most importantly, we have the advantage of winning if it's tied.