MLB opening day has landed and FastMoneyLabs has a Same Game Parlay and Player Prop pick to add to your cards.
@FastMoneyLabs' +1700 MLB SGP + Player Prop Pick: Orioles @ Red Sox - 3/30
@FastMoneyLabs’ Orioles / Red Sox Player Prop Pick + SGP (+1700)
It’s a brisk 39 degrees in Boston! Not the best hitting weather in theory — but the data supports it! In the last 5 seasons, Fenway Park games with <= 45 degree temps averaged 10.9 total runs with a median value of 12.5! That’s pretty good. It means 50% of the time, there were 13+ runs.
Both offenses project decently. Starting pitching does not (Kluber and Gibson rank bottom 6 on today’s pitching slate). Oddsmakers tagged this matchup with the highest game total on the slate (o/u 9) for a reason, and I want action on it!
With that all said, here’s where I landed!
Official Play: Adley Rutschman to score 1+ Run (+123) (risk 0.5 units)
Best odds Barstool Sportsbook & BetRivers; playable down to +100
Fresh off a fantastic rookie year — the Orioles’ catcher cruised through spring training and is the ultimate breakout candidate!
What really differentiates Rutschman is his ability to get on base. Dude’s a MACHINE in that department. Hits. Walks. Doesn’t matter. Kid does it all. Also hits for power.
His on-base potential + optimal lineup position (batting 2nd in front of Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle and Gunnar Henderson) make him a strong bet to record runs this year starting today!
Fun SGP (+1700)
High-risk stuff, sprinkle responsibly!
Adley Rutschman to score 1+ Run (+123)
- See above!
Gunnar Henderson 1+ RBI (+205)
- Player type: breakout candidate
- Lineup spot: favorable (batting 5th)
- Matchup: decent (42.4% hard hit rate vs. RHP last year; 4 RBIs in 7 career games vs. Boston; while he’s never faced Kluber, the top of the O’s lineup hits him well… good for Gunnar’s RBI potential)
- Intangibles: world-class name
Alex Verdugo 1+ Run (+117)
- Player type: consistent veteran
- Lineup spot: very favorable (batting leadoff in front of Rafael Devers, Justin Turner and Masataka Yoshida)
- Matchup: favorable (Gibson worse vs. LHB and Verdugo thrives vs. RHP)
Justin Turner 1+ RBI (+170)
- Player type: superstar caliber
- Lineup spot: extremely favorable (batting 3rd behind Devers and Verdugo)
- Matchup: favorable (his best power splits; as measured by SLG%, are vs. RHP)
- Intangibles: 1st official game with his new team, and he’s motivated to win over Boston fans!
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