@FastMoneyLabs' +423 Friday Night Parlay - 7/8

This is a matchup between two teams and pitchers trending opposite directions.

The Orioles won 5 straight contests and 10 of their last 14. The team remains under 0.500 with a 40-44 record but is outperforming in this specific spot:

• 22-17 (56.4%) at home
• 4-2 (66.7%) as a favorite
• 3-1 (75%) as a home favorite
• 2-1 (66.7%) when moneyline was -121 to -151
• 9-7 (56.3%) when Tyler Wells starts

Tyler Wells is a right-handed pitcher (RHP), and the Angels’ struggles vs. RHPs are well-documented. They’ve also lost 5 of their last 6 games and are known to struggle in this specific spot as a road underdog:

• 17-23 (42.5%) on the road
• 7-22 (24.1%) as an underdog
• 5-17 (22.7%) as a road underdog
• 3-11 (21.4%) when moneyline was +100 to +130
• 4-8 (33.3%) when Reid Detmers starts

Reid Detmers is a left-handed pitcher (LHP), and Baltimore ranks 7th vs. LHPs in the last 30 days as measured by wRC+.

There’s a chance of pop up storms during the game, but it shouldn’t matter. I’m backing the birds to win with confidence as slight home favorite for Leg 1.

If you’re feeling risky — add Ryan Mountcastle 2+ Total Bases. Dude is on a heater and destroys left-handed pitching.

I’m fading Cleveland pitcher Adam Civale for Leg 2.

He’s allowed 22 earned runs in 5 starts on the road this year. That translates to a 9.90 ERA away from home. His advanced stats show he could be due for some positive regression (for example, his 7.04 overall ERA compares to a 5.01 expected ERA). Even still, the advanced stats confirm he’s been bad.

The Royals’ bats are also sneaky hot right now. They’re coming off a series where they scored 5.5 runs per game against some of the best pitchers in the game in Houston.

It’s worth noting that series was on the road, and tonight they’re home where the Royals tend to score less. That’s a risk I’m willing to take in this spot vs. Aaron Civale, a pitcher with a 5.65 lifetime ERA at Kauffman Stadium. That’s his highest mark of any ballpark where he’s pitched at least 3 times.

Last time he visited Kansas City (April 11th), Civale allowed 4 runs (2 earned) on 4 hits in just 3.1 innings. Even if he pitches better tonight, I trust the home team to score at least 4 (and hopefully more) by the end of the night to cash Leg 2.

If your book doesn’t offer o4 line, o4.5 is a fine pivot at plus money odds.

To close this thing out, I’m playing a hot trend against a team that’s very capable of keeping it rolling tonight.

The Phillies just saw Wainwright on Sunday and tagged him with 8 hits. Including that performance, Wainwright’s now allowed 7+ hits in 6 straight starts and 7 of his last 8. Tonight, we only need 6+.

He’s pitched better at home this year but even still, this bet cashed in 3 of his last 4 starts at Busch Stadium.

If you’re feeling risky, you could consider backing Rhys Hoskins 2+ Total Bases prop for a better payout. He’s tallied 4 hits in his last 5 ABs vs. Wainwright with 3 home runs and a double. My only concern with backing Hoskins tonight relates to the possibility that Wainwright plans to pitch around him. He’s a smart pitcher and if I were him, I’d walk Hoskins at least once if not twice to limit damage.

For that reason, I prefer the simpler bet on Wainwright to allow 6+ hits as he’s been doing in every start.

I got +423 odds for this parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e. half normal bet size). Parlaying bets carries an extra element of risk, so please bet responsibly guys and best of luck!