@FastMoneyLabs' +479 Friday Night Parlay - 8/12

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Leg 1: Aaron Judge (NYY) 2+ Total Bases (-115) vs. Boston Red Sox

How is this -115? Those questions might be better left unasked. Other books have this closer to -140. I'll take -115 at FanDuel!

The Yankees’ slugger and MLB Home Run leader just smashed his 45th dinger of the season -- a 412 foot double-deck moonshot -- to give him 15 in his last 23 games. He blew past this 2+ Total Bases (TB) prop line in 16 of those 23 (69.6%) games.

With that in mind, it’s not hard to like his chances to stay hot tonight vs. a rival team and starting pitcher he historically crushes. In 33 career Plate Appearances vs. Nathan Eovaldi, Judge tallied 11 hits (0.344 BA), 2 doubles and a home run (0.500 SLG). What's scary about those stats is how according to MLB Statcast -- they should be even better. His 0.344 Batting Average vs. Eovaldi, for example, compares to 0.413 expected Batting Average, which factors in quality of contact.

Judge also recorded 2+ TB in 5 of his last 9 visits to Fenway Park. It won't cash every time (obviously) but for the odds, I'll take my chances at -115!

Note: I also bet this prop straight to win 1 unit.

via Fanduel

Leg 2: Tony Gonsolin (LAD) 5+ Strikeouts & Win (-105) vs. Kansas City Royals

The Dodgers are 13-1 since July 27th, winning by an average margin of +5.0 runs and median margin of +4.0. Tonight, they fly to Kansas City to take on the Royals team that -- in my opinion -- has been grossly outperforming of late.

Kansas City recently traded away two of their best hitters in Andrew Benintendi (to the Yankees) and Whitt Merrifield (to the Blue Jays) yet find themselves on a 6-2 run. I believe their outperformance is explained by a string of soft matchups vs. the White Sox and Red Sox. The Dodgers are not the White Sox or Red Sox.

Looking at the Royals season-long performance vs. strong teams, they're just 10-26 vs. clubs that win >54% of their games. As a heavy underdog (odds +175 to +205 range), they're just 1-7. The Dodgers are the opposite in that they perform well as a heavy favorite, entering play tonight with a 16-5 record vs. a moneyline price in the -215 to -245 range.

The Dodgers are also 11-3 this season after a day off, whereas the Royals are just 33-56 when playing their 3rd straight game without a rest day.

Pitching for LA tonight will be Tony Gonsolin, and the Dodgers are a healthy 16-4 when he starts. He's recorded 5+ strikeouts in 14 of his last 17 starts, and I like that trend to stay winning tonight vs. a Royals team whose strikeout rate is rising steadily since the trade deadline. 7 of the 10 Right-Handed Pitchers (RHP) they've faced since Deadline Day (August 2nd) covered their strikeout line, and I like Gonsolin's chances to join that club tonight!

Note: I also bet this prop straight to win 1 unit.

via FanDuel

Leg 3: Carlos Rodon (SFG) 8+ Strikeouts (-170) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Death. Taxes. Left-Handed Pitchers (LHP) covering their Strikeout Line vs. the Pirates.

16 of the last 20 LHPs smashed their Strikeout prop line vs. the Pirates, and it hasn't even been remotely close. Looking at the 16 pitchers that went 'Over':

  • They covered by an average margin of +2.7 Ks vs. the closing line.
  • 13 of the 16 covered by more than 1 full strikeout.
  • The last 3 that covered nearly doubled the line (all finished with 8 Ks vs. a 4.5 closing line)

Those stats have me lickin' my chops and eager to back Carlos Rodon tonight, a veteran southpaw (i.e. Lefty) who ranks in the Top 10% of MLB in Strikeout Rate this season. Nearly 1 out of every 3 plate appearances is resulting in a strikeout vs. him.

In limited lifetime action vs. this Pirates roster, Rodon recorded 8 strikeouts in 19 Plate Appearances. That translates to a 42.1% K rate.

Betting him to finish with 8+ Strikeouts has a 50% hit rate in 22 starts this season. That hit rate improves to 56% when we isolate his 9 home starts. It's worth noting he's finished 'Under' in 4 of his last 6 starts at home; however, several of those games were tough matchups such as the San Diego Padres. Now back home with a soft matchup, I like Rodon to get back on track with 8+ Ks tonight.

Note: I also bet him to get 8+ strikeouts as a straight bet to win 1 unit at -137 odds (available at Barstool Sportsbook at time of writing).

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The Slip

I got +479 odds for the 3-Leg Parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e. half my normal bet size) to win 2.4.

I also placed a straight bet on each prop to win 1 unit (note: for Carlos Rodon, I got better odds at Barstool Sportsbook, so I placed my straight bet there at -137).

Parlaying bets comes with an extra layer of risk, so please bet responsibly guys and best of luck!

$FML

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