The struggling vet is coming off two bad starts, but they were both road games. At home, he’s allowed 2 or fewer runs in 4 of his last 5 starts.
It’s never comfortable backing Berrios, but is it a pill I’m willing to swallow for a party with Tampa Bay in Toronto? Yes it is. Their 28.2% K rate vs. RHP is the highest mark in MLB the last 2 weeks. Their season-long K rate is around the same. They’ve also failed to score 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 7 visits to Rogers Centre.
Even Yusei Kikuchi struck out 8 Tampa Bay Rays last night. Let that sink in.
If Yusei Kikuchi whiffed 8+, do we think Berrios can get to 5? The market seems to think he can, and I agree. His Strikeout prop line opened at o/u 4.5 with a +105 price for a bet on the over last night. It quickly adjusted, but even at the revised price I see value on a bet that Berrios will get 5+ today. If you’re feeling risky, you can pair it with a bet that the Jays will also win the game, or use the 6+ Alt Line.