@FastMoneyLabs’ +537 Friday Parlay - 7/1

Leg 1: Jose Berrios Over 4.5 Ks (-165) vs. TBR

The struggling vet is coming off two bad starts, but they were both road games. At home, he’s allowed 2 or fewer runs in 4 of his last 5 starts.

It’s never comfortable backing Berrios, but is it a pill I’m willing to swallow for a party with Tampa Bay in Toronto? Yes it is. Their 28.2% K rate vs. RHP is the highest mark in MLB the last 2 weeks. Their season-long K rate is around the same. They’ve also failed to score 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 7 visits to Rogers Centre.

Even Yusei Kikuchi struck out 8 Tampa Bay Rays last night. Let that sink in.

If Yusei Kikuchi whiffed 8+, do we think Berrios can get to 5? The market seems to think he can, and I agree. His Strikeout prop line opened at o/u 4.5 with a +105 price for a bet on the over last night. It quickly adjusted, but even at the revised price I see value on a bet that Berrios will get 5+ today. If you’re feeling risky, you can pair it with a bet that the Jays will also win the game, or use the 6+ Alt Line.

Leg 2: New York Mets -0.5 (F5) (-145) vs. TEX

Did you know the New York Mets are 25-11 (69%) vs. the First 5 Innings (F5) Run Line at Home? Factoring in odds, betting their F5 Run Line every home game has returned +14.27 units of profit with a +33.82% ROI. To put that in perspective, the next best team on that list returned +10.8 units of profit with +23.25% ROI (Minnesota Twins).

I like their chances to keep that trend rolling today vs. Texas’ starter Glenn Otto. His 5.32 ERA is bad and expected ERA calculated by MLB Statcast is even worse (6.52, bottom 1% of MLB).

This highlights a pitching edge for NYM with Chris Bassitt toeing the rubber for them today. He’s been elite, especially at Citi Field where he sports a 3.16 ERA in 51.1 IP.

I also like how the Mets are 10-2 after a day off this year. Texas is just 3-7 in the same situation, and they’re both coming off a rest day.

Faced with a choice between backing the Mets and Bassitt at home vs. the Texas Rangers and Otto on the road — no need to twist my arm. We’re backing the Mets.

Leg 3: Minnesota Twins ML & Over 8.5 (+130) vs. BAL

To close this thing out, I’m backing the strong home team in the Twins and fading Baltimore pitcher Spenser Watkins.

The Twins are 23-17 (57.5%) at home and 19-8 (70.4%) as a home favorite. They’re also 7-4 when Joe Ryan starts. Those stats contrast nicely against an Orioles team that is 17-25 (40.5%) on the road and 16-24 (40%) as a road underdog. They’re 5-4 when Spenser Watkins starts, but it’s because he’s getting good run support, not because he’s been good. Watkins’ 6.48 expected ERA ranks in the bottom 1% of MLB. In positive news for him, it can’t get much worse.

I fully expect runs from both sides, but given Minnesota’s clear pitching edge, I’m backing them with confidence to win a high-scoring game tonight.

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The Slip

I got +537 odds for the parlay at Barstool Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e. half normal bet size). Parlaying bets carries an extra element of risk, so please bet responsibly guys and best of luck!

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