@FastMoneyLabs' +553 Friday Night Parlay - 8/26

It’s Friday night, and the stakes are high. $FML cashed +740 odds last week and made it look easy. Does he have what it takes to run it back?

Leg 1: Bailey Falter (PHI) 5+ Strikeouts and Win (+106) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

I’m telling you right now. This might be the very last bet FanDuel wants to see in our Parlay tonight. I mention, since I noticed they aren’t listing Player Performance Doubles for this game. I’ve been a FanDuel user long enough to know that’s a tell tale sign: we absolutely need to play this.

Our Pirates vs. Lefties strategy has been so damn profitable this summer, I literally plan to tell my Grandkids about it. When I saw Bailey Falter listed today, I felt like a kid in a candy store. It saved me a couple bucks on coffee, too. I’m so hyped up right now.

We’re getting a nice clean 4.5 line on Falter’s strikeouts prop today – a number he’s hit in 4 of his last 5 starts. Almost 1 month ago to the day he faced these Pirates and whiffed 8. Tonight, we only need 5+?! Take my money.

Also supporting this pick is the fact the Phillies are 15-2 (88%) in their last 17 vs. losing teams (win percentage below < 0.500). Tonight’s matchup vs. the Pirates fits that system perfectly, and I need all the action I can get on it for Leg 1.

Note: I also bet this Leg straight to win 1 unit via FanDuel

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Leg 2: Chris Bassitt (NYM) 5+ Strikeouts and Win First 5 Innings (-116) vs. Colorado Rockies

The full game Performance Double works too, but for better odds – I feel we can justify taking First 5 Innings instead. Here’s why: We’ve highlighted this strategy for the FlashPicks fam before, and it still rings true: Betting the New York Mets to win the First 5 Innings at Home this year has been insanely profitable. Their 42-18 record in this spot ranks #1 in just about any way you slice it. Factoring in odds, betting it every time has returned +24.52 units of profit with +33.38% ROI. That’s nearly double the 2nd ranked team (Astros at +17.79% ROI).

Sportsbooks are not stupid, though, and are clearly catching on, evidenced by bumping the Mets’ First 5 Innings Run line up to -1.5 for tonight’s contest. It’s possible that could still cash, but it’s a bad number to get. For our parlay, I much prefer a simple bet on New York to win the First 5 innings outright, so that’s what I’m rolling with.

The Mets’ ATS Home record aside, they also hold a meaningful pitching edge with Chris Bassitt on the bump tonight, and that dude’s on fire. He’s allowed just 2 earned runs in 26 innings pitched this month. His 3.20 expected ERA ranks inside the Top-24% of Major League Baseball this season. If you think that’s good, you should know his Home ERA is even better, dipping to an elite 2.55 at Citi Field where they play tonight. I respect the Rockies lineup, but they’re much less dangerous outside of Denver.

Chris Bassitt’s strikeout numbers also improve significantly at home, where he’s posted 6+ K’s in 9 of 12 (75%) this season. On the road, he’s just 5-6 (45%) vs. that same 6+ number. I fully expect him to hit 6+, but for our parlay, I prefer the safety of the 5+ number.

Last but not least, I feel comfort knowing Chad Kuhl is scheduled to pitch for Colorado tonight. The Rockies play in a hitter-friendly park, and logic suggests their pitchers should fare better away from home, right? Not true for Mr. Kuhl. Amazingly, he’s pitched to a 4.17 ERA at Coors Field, which rises to 6.08 away from home. He’s yet to face the 2022 Mets, but to put it kindly: I wouldn’t want to be him tonight.

Bottom line: there’s a lot to like here, and I feel we can back Bassitt and the Mets with confidence for Leg 2.

Note: I also bet this Leg straight to win 1 unit via Fanduel

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Leg 3: Justin Steele (CHC) 6+ Strikeouts (-156) vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Tonight marks the 6th Steele/Milwaukee matchup this season. Normally I shy away from these spots, because I believe familiarity favors bats. However, I feel Justin Steele deserves an exception to the rule here, because he continues to defy it. His strikeout numbers keep rising each time he faces the Brewers, and I don’t think it’s a fluke. Here’s why:

Milwaukee’s 26.1% strikeout rate vs. Lefties was already bad (3rd highest), but it’s been trending worse. In the last 30 days, it’s risen more than 5 percentage points to 31.8%. That’s absolutely pitiful. To put it in context, it means nearly 1 out of every 3 of their Plate Appearances vs. Lefties are resulting in strikeouts.

Justin Steele Chicago Cubs
Justin Steele Checked for Illegal Substances

5 straight LHPs have now finished with 8+ strikeouts vs. Milwaukee, and 8 of the last 10 whiffed 7+. Justin Steele was one of those guys, and he sat down 9 (for the 2nd time this year vs. them). Steele’s also covered this 6+ Ks line in 7 of his last 10 starts, averaging 6.8 Ks per game in the stretch with a median value of 7.

I’m not gonna lie guys, it was tempting to bump this up to 7+, but for our parlay, I prefer the safety of this 6+ number. If you’re feeling risky, you could consider placing a straight wager on 7+ at plus money odds, but I personally didn’t, because Steele's strikeout rate dips slightly on the road, and tonight’s game is in Milwaukee.

Note: I did not place a straight bet on this leg due to odds. A little too juiced for my liking.

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The Slip

I got +553 odds for the Parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e. half my normal bet size) to win 2.77.

I also placed a straight wager on each of the first 2 Legs to win 1 unit each (note: I did not place a straight bet on Leg 3 due to odds)

Parlaying bets is a risky venture, albeit a fun one at that – especially on a Friday. Please bet responsibly guys and good luck!

FML

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