The full game Performance Double works too, but for better odds – I feel we can justify taking First 5 Innings instead. Here’s why: We’ve highlighted this strategy for the FlashPicks fam before, and it still rings true: Betting the New York Mets to win the First 5 Innings at Home this year has been insanely profitable. Their 42-18 record in this spot ranks #1 in just about any way you slice it. Factoring in odds, betting it every time has returned +24.52 units of profit with +33.38% ROI. That’s nearly double the 2nd ranked team (Astros at +17.79% ROI).
Sportsbooks are not stupid, though, and are clearly catching on, evidenced by bumping the Mets’ First 5 Innings Run line up to -1.5 for tonight’s contest. It’s possible that could still cash, but it’s a bad number to get. For our parlay, I much prefer a simple bet on New York to win the First 5 innings outright, so that’s what I’m rolling with.
The Mets’ ATS Home record aside, they also hold a meaningful pitching edge with Chris Bassitt on the bump tonight, and that dude’s on fire. He’s allowed just 2 earned runs in 26 innings pitched this month. His 3.20 expected ERA ranks inside the Top-24% of Major League Baseball this season. If you think that’s good, you should know his Home ERA is even better, dipping to an elite 2.55 at Citi Field where they play tonight. I respect the Rockies lineup, but they’re much less dangerous outside of Denver.
Chris Bassitt’s strikeout numbers also improve significantly at home, where he’s posted 6+ K’s in 9 of 12 (75%) this season. On the road, he’s just 5-6 (45%) vs. that same 6+ number. I fully expect him to hit 6+, but for our parlay, I prefer the safety of the 5+ number.
Last but not least, I feel comfort knowing Chad Kuhl is scheduled to pitch for Colorado tonight. The Rockies play in a hitter-friendly park, and logic suggests their pitchers should fare better away from home, right? Not true for Mr. Kuhl. Amazingly, he’s pitched to a 4.17 ERA at Coors Field, which rises to 6.08 away from home. He’s yet to face the 2022 Mets, but to put it kindly: I wouldn’t want to be him tonight.
Bottom line: there’s a lot to like here, and I feel we can back Bassitt and the Mets with confidence for Leg 2.
Note: I also bet this Leg straight to win 1 unit via Fanduel