@FastMoneyLabs’ Friday Night Parlay - 9/9

With NFL officially kicking off last night, there’s a real chance tonight marks my final Friday Night Parlay... At least for now. It’s been a nice run, but something about “Sunday All Day Parlay” has a nice ring to it. Final Decision on that front is TBD, so for now, my sole focus is cashing tonight! Let’s get to it.

FYI – I’m targeting Draftkings since they’re offering a 25% profit boost on SGPx. I structured my wager accordingly to meet the requirements. They’re also offering some nice promos for NFL Week 1, so my goal tonight is to build up the bankroll for reinvestment this weekend.

Note: I structured Leg 1 as a SGP to unlock 25% boost promo. If you’re not on Draftkings, I suggest pivoting to Part 1, explained below:

Part 1: Game Total over 7.5 (Alt Line) (-170)

This total opened at o/u 8. The market has since steamed it up to 8.5, and I won’t be surprised if it closes at 9. In spirit of safety for our Parlay, I bought down to 7.5 using Alt Lines feature on Draftkings (though probably not necessary).

Here’s why I like the Over (spoiler alert… if you’re a Padres fan, cover your ears): Since trading Juan Soto and Josh Bell (their two best hitters), the Washington Nationals have the #8 ranked offense vs. Right-Handed Pitching (RHP). In the last 14 days, they’re #1, with a wRC+ statistic of 139, indicating they’re performing +39% better than the average team right now.

Betting the Nats to cover their team total is 9-1 in their last 10 games, returning +7.7 units of profit with +59.23% ROI. Books will eventually adjust, but the key word there is eventually; and they clearly haven’t made the adjustment yet, with Nationals Team Total sitting at o/u 3.5 with plus money odds on the over tonight.

Reading the room implies oddsmakers believe the Nats are due for some negative scoring regression soon, which might be true, but regardless, I like tonight’s matchup for them vs. Noah Syndergaard, a pitcher they tagged with 4 runs on 11 hits in just 5 innings on August 4th. That was before they really got hot.

It was tempting to back the Nats TT o3.5 for Leg 1 at plus money odds, but with Patrick Corbin pitching for Washington tonight, I expect a 2-way party. Corbin’s a Left-Handed Pitcher (LHP), and the Phillies crush LHP, ranking #7 on the season and #9 in the last 30-days. Corbin allowed 4+ earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts vs. them, including a 6-run shelling in his last visit to Citizens Bank Park.

Given I see meaningful advantages for both offenses, I like the Game Total’s chances of finishing over 7.5 tonight.

Part 2: Both Starting Pitchers to Allow 5+ Hits (-105)

This ties in nicely with the Over since the bets are correlated. If Syndergaard and Corbin don’t allow many hits, the Over probably won’t cash, and vice versa. Here’s to hoping it’s the latter.

• Corbin allowed 5+ hits in 22/27 (81%) starts this season and in 6/6 vs. Philly since 2021.
• Syndergaard allowed 5+ hits in 11 of his last 14 (79%) starts and 5/6 (83%) since joining Philly at the trade deadline. One of those starts was an 11-hit shelling at the hands of these Nats.

Combining these bets comes out to +160 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, and importantly, they all meet requirements for the SGPx boost tonight (-300 minimum odds per leg).

Fading Kansas City starter Daniel Lynch and backing the Tigers F5 TT vs. LHP trend. As my readers know, Detroit’s offense performs meaningfully better vs. LHP, especially starters like Lynch.

Betting them to score 2+ First Five Innings (F5) runs cashed in 12 of their last 17 (70.5%) games in this spot. Lynch also allowed 2+ F5 runs in 4 straight starts, 7 of his last 9 (77.8%) overall, and 7 of 10 (70%) at home this season.

BallParkPal.com simulates each game thousands of times, and Detroit averaged 2.74 F5 runs in those simulations (+1.24 runs vs. line) for tonight’s matchup.

Also supporting this pick is the fact the Tigers just saw Lynch in Detroit last week, and I believe familiarity benefits bats. They tagged him with 4 runs in just 5 innings that day, and tonight we only need 2+?! Take my money.

If your book doesn’t offer F5 TTs, I’d consider pivoting to the full game TT at any line up to 4 (I wouldn’t take o4.5).

I don’t care who McCullers is facing – this line is too low. He’s an elite strikeout pitcher with longstanding command issues, ranking in the bottom 17% of Walk Rate last season. He missed the beginning of 2022, but in 4 starts since returning, he’s pitched to a career worst 14.9% walk rate, giving 3+ batters a free pass in each of his 4 starts (including vs. this Angels team last week). He’s arguably due for some positive regression on that front – I’ll be surprised if he walks 3+ again, but at this 1.5 line, all we need is 2.

Betting McCullers to walk 2+ batters is now 30-3 (91%) since 2021. It’s also 5-1 in his starts vs. LAA in that stretch. This year’s Angels team doesn’t walk nearly as much, so the fact he gave them 4 free passes last week really says something.

If you’re more of a visual person like me, see McCullers’ walks trend visualized below, courtesy of Props.Cash research service:

I got +574 odds for the Parlay at Draftkings Sportsbook and risked 0.75 units.

With the SGPx Boost Promo, you can get +717. I locked it in there. (for pick performance tracking, I’ll record this bet at non-boosted odds (assuming not everyone has boost)

See the ticket below. Parlaying bets is a high-risk/high-reward strategy, so please bet responsibly and best of luck!

The Slip: