Note: I structured Leg 1 as a SGP to unlock 25% boost promo. If you’re not on Draftkings, I suggest pivoting to Part 1, explained below:
Part 1: Game Total over 7.5 (Alt Line) (-170)
This total opened at o/u 8. The market has since steamed it up to 8.5, and I won’t be surprised if it closes at 9. In spirit of safety for our Parlay, I bought down to 7.5 using Alt Lines feature on Draftkings (though probably not necessary).
Here’s why I like the Over (spoiler alert… if you’re a Padres fan, cover your ears): Since trading Juan Soto and Josh Bell (their two best hitters), the Washington Nationals have the #8 ranked offense vs. Right-Handed Pitching (RHP). In the last 14 days, they’re #1, with a wRC+ statistic of 139, indicating they’re performing +39% better than the average team right now.
Betting the Nats to cover their team total is 9-1 in their last 10 games, returning +7.7 units of profit with +59.23% ROI. Books will eventually adjust, but the key word there is eventually; and they clearly haven’t made the adjustment yet, with Nationals Team Total sitting at o/u 3.5 with plus money odds on the over tonight.
Reading the room implies oddsmakers believe the Nats are due for some negative scoring regression soon, which might be true, but regardless, I like tonight’s matchup for them vs. Noah Syndergaard, a pitcher they tagged with 4 runs on 11 hits in just 5 innings on August 4th. That was before they really got hot.
It was tempting to back the Nats TT o3.5 for Leg 1 at plus money odds, but with Patrick Corbin pitching for Washington tonight, I expect a 2-way party. Corbin’s a Left-Handed Pitcher (LHP), and the Phillies crush LHP, ranking #7 on the season and #9 in the last 30-days. Corbin allowed 4+ earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts vs. them, including a 6-run shelling in his last visit to Citizens Bank Park.
Given I see meaningful advantages for both offenses, I like the Game Total’s chances of finishing over 7.5 tonight.
Part 2: Both Starting Pitchers to Allow 5+ Hits (-105)
This ties in nicely with the Over since the bets are correlated. If Syndergaard and Corbin don’t allow many hits, the Over probably won’t cash, and vice versa. Here’s to hoping it’s the latter.
- Corbin allowed 5+ hits in 22/27 (81%) starts this season and in 6/6 vs. Philly since 2021.
- Syndergaard allowed 5+ hits in 11 of his last 14 (79%) starts and 5/6 (83%) since joining Philly at the trade deadline. One of those starts was an 11-hit shelling at the hands of these Nats.
Combining these bets comes out to +160 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, and importantly, they all meet requirements for the SGPx boost tonight (-300 minimum odds per leg).