@FastMoneyLabs' +746 MLB Parlay - 4/28

Leg 1: Marcus Stroman 6+ Strikeouts (+154) vs. Miami

He’s coming off a tough game vs. the Dodgers but has mostly kept opponents at bay (1.00 WHIP and 2.17 ERA), recording 30 strikeouts in five starts — good for 6.0 per game and a 26.1% K rate (career high). What differentiates Stroman to me is his ability to put away batters with multiple pitches. Said differently — he doesn’t rely on a single put away pitch for K’s. This makes him difficult for hitters to predict when behind in counts. And the Marlins —no pun intended— are floundering vs. Right-Handed Pitching (RHP), often finding themselves behind in counts. They’ve posted the 4th highest K rate (26.1%) and lowest on-base-percentage (0.264) in the 1st 5 innings vs. RHP this year. In his only start vs. Miami last season, Stroman recorded 7 K’s! Tonight, his standard line is o/u 4.5?! Almost feels too easy, so I went 6+.

Leg 2: Grayson Rodriguez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120) vs. Detroit

Honestly decent chance this game gets postponed, but just in case: I’m locking in the UNDER. My first K prop Under of the year. I don’t hit these often, but the stars are aligned! Detroit just saw Gray Rod last week and familiarity benefits bats. 3 of the first 4 batters he faced that night struck out. His final K tally? Only 6 total Ks in 5 IP. Barely cleared this 5.5 line despite 3 early K’s. Only 3 of his last 18 batters faced struck out. I’m super high on Grayson’s K ability, but the kid’s still figuring out his put away pitch, and it’s painful to watch at times. He’s great at getting in 2-strike counts but can’t close the deal. Now he’s fresh in Detroit’s minds, and the weather forecast is TERRIBLE. Rotogrinders Weather team sees a strong chance of rainstorms causing delays, limiting both pitchers’ ceilings tonight. Very surprised this is plus money right now.

Leg 3: Tyler Anderson 5+ Strikeouts (-194) vs. Milwaukee

This former LA Dodger is struggling to adjust on a new team but should be due for improvement. He’s pitching to a career-low 12% K rate through 4 starts. I’m buying the dip on that number with confidence. Anderson was a 19% or higher K rate guy in 5 of the last 6 seasons. He’s not overpowering but pounds the zone (63% 1st pitch strike rate) and can paint corners (47.2% Edge rate this year). Those two traits make me optimistic vs. Milwaukee. Only 4 teams take more “called strikes” than the Brewers this year, and they’re the #1 K rate team vs. Left-Handed Pitching (LHP). We’re nearly a month into the season and 32.8% of the team’s Plate Appearances (PA) are resulting in K’s vs. LHP. Isolate the First 5 Innings and that number rises to 35.9%. In the last 2 weeks, it spiked to 41.9%. They’re only hitting 0.146 during that stretch with a 0.186 OBP vs. LHP – both dead last in MLB. For what it’s worth – Anderson didn’t face Milwaukee last year but has a 34.3% career K rate vs. the current roster. He failed to record more than 4 K’s in a start this year, yet tonight’s line is 5.5?! Very interesting right? Look for him to pierce that 6+ mark tonight. In spirit of safety… I bought down to 5+ for our parlay.

The Slip

I got +746 for the 3-leg parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e., half normal bet size) to win 3.73U! In the event Detroit gets rained out, the odds will adjust.

Note: I also sprinkled and recommend 0.5U straight bet on Leg 1 (Stroman 6+ K’s) @ +154.