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@FastMoneyLabs' (+765) Friday Night MLB Parlay - 3/31


After sweeping the MLB picks yesterday (but having a little trouble on the NHL side) $FML is all in on baseball - check out his +765 parlay for Friday night's action below!

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Leg 1: Pete Alonso to Record an RBI (+160) vs. Miami

The Polar Bear went hitless yesterday, and you know what they say… don’t poke the bear. His hit prop is tempting.

Here’s why I pivoted to RBI:

  • Top of the Mets lineup are on-base MACHINES vs. Left-Handed Pitching (LHP)
  • Alonso also thrives vs. LHP (0.358 weighted on-base average; +42 points vs. league average)
  • And his expected weighted on-base average last year was even better (0.511), signaling upside in 2023 (especially with the ban on defensive shifts)
  • Yesterday he left 3 men on base. Uncharacteristic for Pete, and I don’t see it happening again. Simple as that!

Leg 2: Jeremy Pena to Score a Run (+120) vs. Chicago

Imagine having to face Dylan Cease (AL Cy Young Runner-Up) Opening Day; struggling to hit (collectively as a team); then seeing Lance Lynn the next day. He’s a savvy veteran, sure, but no Dylan Cease! I’d welcome the challenge if I were Houston and historically, they do.

In their last 3 meetings, Houston hammered Lynn for 21 earned runs (12.1 ERA). In his last 4 visits to Minute Maid Park, Lynn surrendered 4+ earned runs each time.

I considered Houston ML and Team Total but ultimately rolled the dice on Pena at plus money. Here’s why:

  • Houston’s leadoff spot scored 121 runs last season (3rd most)
  • 85% of those runs were scored by Jose Altuve
  • Now Altuve’s on the injured list, making Jeremy Pena that guy (temporarily)
  • The Astros lineup is still STACKED, even without Altuve
  • If Pena gets on base (likely)… I trust his teammates to knock him in

Leg 3: Xander Bogaerts to Record a Hit (-195)

The X-man just got PAID ($280MM contract) and proved his worth going 3-for-4 with 2 doubles Opening Night.

That was against a Right-Handed Pitcher. Against Lefties, he’s even better. See his rankings last season:

  • #2 in batting average (0.382)
  • #2 in batting average on balls in play (0.443)
  • #5 in weighted runs created+ (wRC+) (192)
  • #17 in slugging percentage (0.568)

Tonight’s lineups are still pending (at time of writing), but he’s expected to bat leadoff. If the rumors prove true, I absolutely love this price for Xander to record a hit.

Batting leadoff boosts his chances to get 5+ plate appearances (PA’s). 5+ PA’s helps balance the risk of Walks (the #1 hit prop killer). And having Manny Machado + Juan Soto lurking on-deck certainly won’t hurt (lowers his chances of walking and boosts his chances of seeing good pitches).

Even if he doesn’t bat leadoff, I like his chances to record a hit (just slightly less).

The Slip:

I got +765 for the parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook & risked 0.25 units! (to win 1.91u)

I also placed (and recommend) small straight bets (risk up to 0.5 units) on each prop, ya know… just in case!

$FML Parlay
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