@FastMoneyLabs’ Best Bet - 6/13

Odds via FanDuel

We’re fading Baltimore Pitcher Kyle Bradish (1-3, 6.45 ERA) and backing the Jays’ scorching hot bats to plate 5+ runs tonight. Over 5.5 works too, but I’ll take o5 since FanDuel is giving it to us (at time of writing).

Canada’s baseball team has now scored 6+ runs in 11 of their last 14 games. They’re coming off a road trip where they outscored opponents 36 to 12. Tonight, they return home where this Team Total bet is 5-1 in their last 6.

The fact this is Toronto’s first home game in a week leads me to expect they’ll play most (if not all) of their starters tonight for this divisional clash vs. Baltimore.

Even if a starter or two sits, I view Toronto as a problematic matchup for Baltimore pitcher Kyle Bradish. The rookie pitcher ranks in the bottom 1/3rd of MLB in most key performance metrics outside of strikeout rate.

Bradish relies mostly on his Fastball, throwing it 53% of the time vs. Righties and 64% of the time vs. Lefties. That presents a challenge vs. Toronto, a team that destroys fastballs up and down their lineup. The Jays are also highly proficient vs. sliders — Bradish’s secondary pitch.

Toronto ranks 2nd in MLB with a 158 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last 14 days. This can be interpreted to mean they’re performing 58% better than the average team in that stretch vs. this split.

I don’t love backing Team Totals on heavy home favorites, since there’s a good chance they only bat 8 times. If they’re leading in the 9th, the game ends before they hit in the bottom of the inning. That said, I’m willing to make an exception today for reasons stated above. I locked it in to win a unit at -120 odds (FanDuel).