@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 6/29

Did you know the San Diego Padres are scoring 6.25 runs per game on Wednesdays (#1 in MLB), 5.46 per game on the road (#1 in MLB), and 5.71 in games against Madison Bumgarner since 2020?

Last week, they knocked the veteran lefty for 6 runs (4 earned) on 9 hits in just 4 innings. That game was played in San Diego where the Padres score less. Today, they get a juicy rematch opportunity just 7-days removed, but this time in Arizona.

The Padres blew a 6-0 lead at Chase Field last night. Even including that, the team is 6-3 in their last 9 visits to the desert powered by strong scoring output (5.22 runs per game).

Manny Machado’s absence dampens their scoring outlook relative to when he’s in, but it shouldn’t be fatal today. That’s because the rest of their roster is a healthy 30 for 101 (0.297) vs. Bumgarner with six doubles, a triple and three home runs. Machado wasn’t available for their matchup last week, and the Padres still dominated.

For what it’s worth, I also like the home team’s scoring outlook today. Arizona is scheduled to face Padres pitcher Mike Clevinger, who’s been mediocre at best. The D’Backs just saw him last week and while they only scored 1 run on 4 hits, I like to fade the pitcher in rematch situations like this. Also supporting Arizona’s scoring outlook is the idea that Mike Clevinger doesn’t pitch deep into games, and San Diego’s bullpen is somewhat gassed. Last night, they used 3 of their 7 available relief pitchers including closer Taylor Rogers, who threw 29 pitches. The Padres have a strong bullpen (3.52 ERA, 11th best), but fatigue will likely weigh on their usual dominance today.

Last but not least, I like how the D’Backs are scoring 4.64 runs per game at home this month and 4.90 for the season on Wednesdays. One could argue the Wednesday split is meaningless, but I find it useful since teams tend to switch up their lineups in the middle of the week. They’ve scored 3+ runs in 9 of 10 Wednesday games this year. Take that for what it’s worth to you.

If I had to pick a side, I lean Padres. But given I expect runs from both sides, I feel the best bet to make is one on the Game Total.

The Pick: Padres/Diamondbacks Over 8.5 Runs (-105)
Odds via FanDuel