How on earth can we bet this at -110 odds tonight?
This is an 8-year veteran with massive, well-documented command issues. He’s struggled to establish himself in the Bigs because of it.
Last week, he was called up from AAA to make a spot start for Colorado in LA. He limited the high-powered Dodgers to a single run on 5 Hits in 6.2 Innings that night, but if we lift the hood on what actually happened – it was ugly.
Only 53 of the 89 pitches he tossed that night were strikes. Said differently, 40%+ of the time he threw a pitch, it was a ball. The Dodgers stayed disciplined and walked 3 times.
Prior to his callup, Urena made 5 starts in AAA (the minors) where he walked 12 batters in just 21 innings pitched. Betting his 2+ Walks prop would’ve cashed in 4 of those 5 starts. That was in the minor leagues against less disciplined competition.
Fast forward to tonight, and he faces a much tougher major league test. The San Diego Padres arrive in Denver sporting the 7th highest walk rate in MLB vs. RHPs. 12 of the last 15 (80%) RHPs they faced walked 2+ Padres.