Fading Gerrit Cole is never a comfortablestrategy. It has been profitable at Fenway Park though, where they play tonight.
His 5.06 lifetime ERA at Fenway is his highest of any American League park where he’s made at least 4 starts. Including playoffs, he’s now allowed 3+ Earned Runs in 6 of 8 career starts as a visitor there.
Those stats highlight potential value on Sox Moneyline and/or Team Total tonight, but their struggling offense makes me hesitant.
Rather than bet on scoring, my preferred angle is a bet that Gerrit Cole will walk at least 2 batters as he’s done in 4 of his last 5 starts. He has a higher walk rate on the road, and betting his over 1.5 walks prop is 6-2 away from home this year. He’s also walked 2+ in 6 of 8 career at Fenway Park and in 5 of his last 6 vs. Boston overall.
The Red Sox team walk rate is down in recent weeks, but I feel they’re due for positive regression towards league average soon.
For all these reasons, I wagered to win a unit on Cole Over 1.5 Walks Prop at -135 odds (available at DraftKings at time of writing).
If your book doesn’t offer Walk Props – Red Sox Team Total over 3.5 is a fine pivot, I just like it a little less.