@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 8/13

Philadelphia Phillies (63-49) @ New York Mets (73-40)

Has Mets Ace Jacob deGrom missed a beat? Through 2 starts, the answer is a definitive no.

His key performance metrics thus far look like video game stats: a 50% strikeout rate, 2.8% walk rate, 0.47 WHIP, 0.131 expected batting average and 1.16 expected ERA, just to name a few.

He’s yet to face the 2022 Phillies, but his lifetime stats vs. the roster are mouthwatering. He’s posted a 35.2% strikeout rate, 0.190 wOBA and 0.283 xSLG across 105 PAs, which is a solid sample size.

The Mets are also an incredible 39-18 (68.4%) vs. the First 5 Innings Run Line at Home this year. Factoring in odds, betting them to cover every game has returned +21.37 units of profit with a 31.2% ROI. That’s good for the best ROI in the league and it’s not even close (the #2 ROI is the St. Louis Cardinals at +13.64%).

Pitching for the Phillies tonight will be Aaron Nola, and while he’s been solid, he’s usually good for a blow up inning or two. His lifetime numbers vs. this Mets roster are also relatively weak. For example, his 0.377 wOBA vs. them is 62 points above league average.

All these points lead me to see value in a bet the Mets will take the First 5 Innings on home turf.

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$FML Best Bet

The Pick: Mets -0.5 First Five Innings (-120) via BetMGM

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