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@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 8/30

My failed Gausman ladder left us hungry last week. . .

That is. . . hungry for redemption. And if we could draw up a perfect matchup for such a thing, it might be tonight’s. To a tee.

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Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are rolling with a young, right-handed batter (RHB) heavy lineup down the stretch that – importantly – lacks experience vs. Splitters. Enter Kevin Gausman, a seasoned veteran that likes to feast on young RHBs with his nasty Splitter, and I smell blood in the water.

He’s yet to face the 2022 Cubs but recorded 10 and 9 Strikeouts in two matchups last season. Looking at their current roster: 5 of 9 projected starters tonight have above average whiff rates vs. Splitters. I’m not putting much weight into the Whiff Rate stat, because it’s a small sample size. Not many pitchers throw Splitters. And that, my friends, is exactly why I love this matchup. The less familiar a team is with Splitters – the more likely Kevin Gausman is to make them look silly.

It was tempting to back the Gausman ladder again, but after last week’s debacle, I prefer the simplicity of a bet he’ll record 7+ Ks at plus money odds widely available at most shops right now (best currently +120 at FanDuel. I recommend risking 1 unit to win 1.2)

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$FML's Best Bet

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Kevin Gausman over 6.5 Strikeouts @ +120
$150 Guaranteed

The Slip

If you’re feeling risky, you could consider pairing with a bet that Shane McClanahan will record 7+ Ks vs. the Marlins (#1 strikeout team vs. LHP). Classic Lucky 7’s play. For a safer play, bump Gausman (or both) down to 6+ Ks using Alt Lines.

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