@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 8/4

Player Props are fun, but I’m taking a slight pivot today with a 2-Leg Moneylines Parlay! Here’s who I’m rolling with:

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Leg 1: San Diego Padres ML (-285) vs. Colorado Rockies

If the National League West wasn’t clenching their cheeks on Trade Deadline day… they are now. The new-look Padres exploded for 9 runs with 3 new bats in the lineup last night. Each newcomer had an immediate impact, headlined by a 1st Inning GRAND SLAM by Brandon Drury on the 1st pitch he saw:

The San Diego Padres have now won 8 of their last 10 home games and should keep it rolling today vs. Kyle Freeland. I’m a Freeland fan, but the Padres crush lefties and especially him, at least historically:

  • Looking back at the last 2 seasons, Freeland’s allowed 20 earned runs in just 28.2 IP vs. San Diego.
  • Looking at his performance splits by location, it reveals Freeland’s fared better in matchups played at Petco Park (in San Diego where they play today).
  • However, I’m not putting too much weight into that last stat considering the firepower Slam Diego just added.

If the Padres can plate a couple runs off Freeland, I like Joe Musgrove’s chances to hold it down and secure victory for the Padres. The 6’5” 29-year-old pitcher arrives at Petco today with the 4th shortest odds to win the NL Cy Young award, and San Diego is a healthy 12-6 when he starts. The Rockies roughed him up for 5 earned runs in a start on July 13th, but it was at Coors Field – the most hitter-friendly park in the country. In the 4 matchups prior to that, Musgrove limited Colorado to just 1 run in 24.1 innings pitched.

Any team can win on any given day in baseball, but I trust Padres ML for Leg 1!

Leg 2: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-225) vs. Washington Nationals

Don’t look now guys, but one of the MLB’s streakiest teams is on a tear again. The Philadelphia Phillies have now won 7 of their last 9 games, which has propelled them up the standings into the last Wild Card spot. Even still, the St. Louis Cardinals are perched just 0.5 games back from that final spot and are breathing down their necks.

The tight Wild Card race underscores the importance of this weekend series vs. the lowly Nationals. If one of the highest payroll teams wants to make the playoffs, the Phillies absolutely need to win games like today’s as a heavy home favorite.

Not only did the Nats just trade away their 2 best bats to the Padres (Soto and Bell), they’ll be sending Paolo Espino to the hill today, and that guy stinks. His percentile rankings on BaseballSavant.com literally resemble an ice tray:

$FML

The graphic reveals he stinks at literally everything besides limiting walks. Limiting walks is usually a good thing… but does it even matter when you’re a guy that gets crushed when you throw strikes?

In a sport where pitching matchups are so important, it’s easy to prefer Philadelphia’s side of the equation today. Pitching for them will be Noah Syndergaard, freshly acquired from the Angels. The man they call ‘Thor’ is having a down season (by his standards). but perhaps a change of scenery is all Syndergaard really needs to get going? That’s certainly Philly’s front office’s hope.

If the Nats find a way to spoil Thor’s debut, I’ll tip my cap. Till then, I’m backing the Phillies to win with confidence as a home favorite for Leg 2.

The Slip

I got -105 odds for this 2-Leg parlay at Draftkings Sportsbook and sized my bet to win a unit (i.e. my normal bet size). Parlaying bets carries an extra element of risk, so please bet responsibly guys and best of luck!

$FML

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