We learned the hard way *never* (I repeat, never) to bet Nick Lodolo’s K prop unders, and the kid’s been rolling since. He’s coming off back-to-back 11 strikeout games and cleared the 9+ K’s threshold in three straight. No mustache needed.
Here’s why I’m backing him tonight:
- Averaging 1.30 Ks per IP (top 11% in MLB)
- His outs prop line implies to expect 6+ innings from him tonight (over 17.5 outs is juiced down to -180)
- 6 IP x 1.3 Ks per IP = projected 7.8 Ks
I’d argue that’s a conservative estimate too, since it’s based on his average stats — and tonight’s opponent strikes out at an above average rate vs. Left-Handed Pitching (LHP):
- Boston’s 25.7% K rate vs. LHP is 8th highest in the league L30 days.
- 6 of the last 8 LHP they faced covered their closing strikeout line.
- And 4 of the 6 pitchers that covered did so by a multiple strikeout margin (i.e., successfully climbed the ladder by at least one step).
- Red Sox also have the 8th highest Chase % and 7th highest Whiff % in the L30 days, which spells trouble vs. Lodolo, a Top-29% pitcher in both categories.
