@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 9/20

Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs. Red Sox

We learned the hard way *never* (I repeat, never) to bet Nick Lodolo’s K prop unders, and the kid’s been rolling since. He’s coming off back-to-back 11 strikeout games and cleared the 9+ K’s threshold in three straight. No mustache needed.

Here’s why I’m backing him tonight:

  • Averaging 1.30 Ks per IP (top 11% in MLB)
  • His outs prop line implies to expect 6+ innings from him tonight (over 17.5 outs is juiced down to -180)
  • 6 IP x 1.3 Ks per IP = projected 7.8 Ks

I’d argue that’s a conservative estimate too, since it’s based on his average stats — and tonight’s opponent strikes out at an above average rate vs. Left-Handed Pitching (LHP):

  • Boston’s 25.7% K rate vs. LHP is 8th highest in the league L30 days.
  • 6 of the last 8 LHP they faced covered their closing strikeout line.
  • And 4 of the 6 pitchers that covered did so by a multiple strikeout margin (i.e., successfully climbed the ladder by at least one step).
  • Red Sox also have the 8th highest Chase % and 7th highest Whiff % in the L30 days, which spells trouble vs. Lodolo, a Top-29% pitcher in both categories.
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I also like how tonight’s game is in Cincinnati where Lodolo tends to post some of his best Strikeout numbers. He’s averaging 7.5 Ks per start at Great American Ballpark, which drops to just 6.3 Ks per start on the road. He’s now cleared the 8+ Ks mark in 4 of his last 6 home starts.

All things considered, this spot screams ladder to me. Here’s how I’m playing it:

The Picks: Nick Lodolo Strikeouts Ladder

  • Risk 1U: Over 6.5 Ks (-140) (DK)
  • Risk 0.5U: 8+ Ks (+128) (FD)
  • Risk 0.25U: 9+ Ks (+240) (FD)
FML

FML

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