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@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 9/23

Brady Singer (KC) vs. Seattle

It’s been a dark season for Kansas City baseball with one notable exception: when Brady Singer takes the hill, the sun shines. He’s now recorded 5+ strikeouts in 15 of his last 20 starts (75%) and 9 of his last 10 (90%) at home in Kauffman Stadium. He’s also eclipsed the 6+ strikeouts mark in 6 of his last 7 at home.

Looking at his underlying numbers: He ranks in the top 42% of the league in strikeout rate; not elite, but not too shabby. Where he really shines is efficiency, as he’s now completed 6+ full innings in 12 of his last 13 starts. His ability to go deep into games enables him to hit the 5+ K’s number at a consistent rate despite not having the most electric ‘swing & miss’ stuff we’re accustomed to seeing these days.

I think we’re getting a low 4.5 line on him tonight, because it’s a tough matchup on paper vs. good Seattle offense, which presents a threat to his 6+ full innings trend. However, I’m not too concerned about that, since they’re a strikeout prone lineup, which should enable him to hit this 5+ Ks number in 5 innings (or maybe less).

Nearly 1 of every 4 Mariner plate appearances are resulting in strikeouts right now vs. Right-Handed Pitchers (RHP). Four straight RHPs covered their closing line by a multiple strikeout margin vs. them, including some low K% guys (James Kaprielian finished with 6 for example, very rare for him).

Seattle superstar Julio Rodriguez is also expected to miss tonight’s game after exiting yesterday with a “concerning” back injury. If he misses, then his likely replacement is Sam Hagerty, and that dude strikes out 29.2% of the time, +7.2% vs. league average.

The Mariners also just welcomed back outfielder Jarred Kelenic, and he strikes out at an insane 36.7% rate vs. RHP, +14.7% vs. league average. He went 2 for 3 with a home run and no Ks in his return yesterday, which tells me he should be in the lineup again tonight at a time he’s statistically due for a strikeout.

If my lineup forecast proves correct, then Singer should easily surpass the 5+ K’s number tonight. For my best bet, I’m rolling with that!

If you’re feeling risky, I also like him to get 6+ as he’s done in 6 of his last 7 home starts.

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The Slip

$FML Pick: Brady Singer over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140) via Draftkings or MGM

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