If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. We’ve been having success with Pitching Outs props lately. Why not go right back to that market today for our Best Bet?
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. We’ve been having success with Pitching Outs props lately. Why not go right back to that market today for our Best Bet?
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAYI respect the Tigers (mainly since they’ve won us some money betting First 5 Innings Team Totals this year), but as I mentioned on Twitter the other day – they lack discipline. As a team, they average 3.81 Pitches per Plate Appearance (P/PA) – just 0.03 above than the Chicago White Sox (3.78), who see the fewest P/PA in MLB.
This has been a season-long trend, and their underlying fundamentals reveal it’s driven by a league-worst 33.5% Chase Rate (+4.5% vs. league average) and 27.5% Whiff Rate (3rd worst; +2.1% vs. league average). String those two stats together, and they explain the team’s league-worst 6.5% Walk Rate, which has been trending worse, especially vs. Left-Handed Pitching (LHP), where it’s dropped to just 4.6% in the last 30 days.
Enter Patrick Sandoval, a LHP that just dominated these Tigers with a complete game, 4-hit shutout on August 19th in Detroit, and it’s easy to see why I love this Outs prop today. Sandoval works efficiently, as evidenced by a 3.82 P/PA; well-below league average and strikingly similar to the Tigers’ team P/PA of 3.81. He also ranks inside the Top-22% of both Chase and Whiff Rate, which are effectively the Tigers’ Achilles Heel (as mentioned above).
New users in NJ. 21+
CLAIM NOWThe result is an A+ matchup for the 25-year-old southpaw, and he's proven he can exploit it with efficiency, finishing with 9 strikeouts in that complete game shutout last month. Amazingly, he only needed 97 pitches to tie a bow on it. Didn’t even crack 100 pitches that day despite the high strikeout total. That’s impressive. Sandoval went on to complete 6+ innings in each of his next two starts, and I like his chances to sustain the trend today.
I view the risk to this bet being the fact the Angels bullpen is rested; however, if Sandoval pitches true to form (2 or less earned runs in 6 straight starts), then it shouldn’t matter, and I placed my wager accordingly. I laid the juice to win 1 unit.
If you’re feeling risky, you could consider pairing this Outs Prop with a bet he’ll record 6+ Strikeouts. On paper, it’s an ideal spot to back the combo via SGP at plus money odds. I personally decided against it, since they just saw him (which should, theoretically, lead to better plate discipline in the rematch). However, given Sandoval’s a fairly clean cut, K per Inning pitcher, it’s not the worst idea given where his lines are sitting today (we need him to pitch 6+ Innings to cash this Outs prop; meanwhile, his Strikeouts line is o/u 5.5 Ks today, and he’s a K per Inning Pitcher).
HOU
KC
PIT
BAL
ARI
CAR
CLE
CIN
DET
CHI
LAR
NYJ
NYG
ATL
PHI
WAS
TEN
IND
MIN
SEA
21+ and present in NJ. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
CLAIM NOWWe're kicking off August with a juicy parlay from our Smart Picks tool boasting a +1065 payout: Our Smart Picks betting tool is completely free to use, and allows you to formulate ...