Toronto scored 6+ runs in 9 of their last 11 games. Tonight, they face a Left-Handed Pitcher (LHP). That spells trouble for Kansas City southpaw Daniel Lynch (2-4, 4.81 ERA). Here’s why:
The Jays have the 10th best offense vs. LHPs this season, as measured by the Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) statistic — currently 112 vs. LHPs.
When wRC+ is greater than 100, it indicates a team is above average. Toronto’s wRC+ of 112 indicates they’re 12% better than league average vs. LHPs.
Looking at more recent periods, they’re even better.
What goes up must come down, of course. And to be fair: there’s reason to believe Toronto is due for worse luck soon vs. LHPs. They have a 0.426 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) vs. Lefties since May 23rd, for example. That’s an insanely good but an unsustainable number.
Can they extend the heater at least one more night? I believe the answer is yes — yes they can. And I say that with confidence, because they’re facing Daniel Lynch.
Lynch allowed 17 earned runs in just 27 innings pitched last month. That’s not good, but what’s even scarier (for him) is how only 2 of his 32 hits allowed went for Home Runs. This tells me he could legitimately be due for worse performance in June with warmer temperatures and more favorable hitting conditions on the horizon.
What’s also scary for Lynch is the fact Toronto only hit 7 home runs vs. LHPs in the Last 30 days despite otherwise dominating them. This tells me the Jays are due for an upward correction in Home Run Rate. And considering the same statement is true for Lynch with respect to Home Runs Allowed — the 25-year-old could be in trouble tonight.
In the event Toronto gets to Lynch early and knocks him out of the game, I like this bet even more. That’s because Kansas City has the 3rd worst bullpen in MLB (as measured by Bullpen ERA). Yesterday (Sunday), they used 5 different relief pitchers in a losing effort vs. Houston. On Saturday, they used 4.
League-wide scoring is also up in the last few weeks. Not to go down to the conspiracy rabbit hole, but this past weekend, BallParkPal.com speculated the rise in scoring corresponds with a suspected change in the physics of the baseball being used across MLB.
I’ll let you decide what to take from that.
Conspiracy theories aside, I feel all these factors support a bet on Toronto to score 6+ runs tonight. I bet to win 1 unit at best odds available at time of writing (-105 at MGM).
