He’s coming off his best start of the campaign — a 2-hit, shutout performance in 7 innings vs. a potent Cardinals lineup — and gets a much softer matchup in Miami tonight.
Since June 15th, the Marlins have the 4th lowest On-Base Percentage (OBP) and 13th highest strikeout rate vs. Right-Handed Pitchers (RHP) in MLB. Betting opposing pitchers to record 4+ Ks vs. them is 16-8 (67%) in that period.
Gibson also thrives in this matchup from a strikeout perspective, at least historically. He failed to reach 5+ Ks in 10 of 16 starts this year, yet his strikeout prop is currently priced at o/u 4.5 for tonight with juice to the over. Why? It’s because Gibson already smashed through this 4.5 line twice already this year vs. the Marlins, finishing with 6 Ks both times. Said differently — he’s only recorded 5+ strikeouts 6 times this year, and 2 of those 6 games were vs. Miami.
This will be the Marlins’ 3rd time seeing Gibson in 2022, and while I don’t expect him to get 6+ again, is 4+ too much to ask? I think not.