@FastMoneyLabs' Friday Night Parlay - 7/15

Leg 1: Kyle Gibson 4+ Ks (-290) vs. Miami

He’s coming off his best start of the campaign — a 2-hit, shutout performance in 7 innings vs. a potent Cardinals lineup — and gets a much softer matchup in Miami tonight.

Since June 15th, the Marlins have the 4th lowest On-Base Percentage (OBP) and 13th highest strikeout rate vs. Right-Handed Pitchers (RHP) in MLB. Betting opposing pitchers to record 4+ Ks vs. them is 16-8 (67%) in that period.

Gibson also thrives in this matchup from a strikeout perspective, at least historically. He failed to reach 5+ Ks in 10 of 16 starts this year, yet his strikeout prop is currently priced at o/u 4.5 for tonight with juice to the over. Why? It’s because Gibson already smashed through this 4.5 line twice already this year vs. the Marlins, finishing with 6 Ks both times. Said differently — he’s only recorded 5+ strikeouts 6 times this year, and 2 of those 6 games were vs. Miami.

This will be the Marlins’ 3rd time seeing Gibson in 2022, and while I don’t expect him to get 6+ again, is 4+ too much to ask? I think not.

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Leg 2: Baltimore Orioles ML (+108) vs. TBR

Are the Orioles the best team in baseball right now? That might be a stretch, but they’re playing damn well enough to earn a spot in our Friday Night Parlay

They’ve now won 10 straight games for the first time since 1999. In a league with a long, 162-game schedule, there are times when teams lack focus and motivation. This is not one of those times in the Baltimore locker room. If you’ve watched any of their games recently, it’s clear (at least to me) that the O’s are playing with heart nearly every moment they step on that field. That’s a quality I like to back when screening for moneyline picks.

Pitching for Baltimore will be the 2nd year, 6’8” righty Tyler Wells. Last time he faced Tampa, he allowed 3 earned runs in 4.2 innings. That was on May 20th. Since then, he’s limited opponents to 2 or less earned runs in 7 of his 9 starts.

The Rays will counter with a bullpen game starting with Luis Patino, a prospect they acquired in the Blake Snell trade a few years ago. Patino’s returning from injury and is only expected to pitch 1-2 innings tonight. He’ll be followed by a series of relievers. That’s not ideal on the surface, since Tampa has the 7th best Bullpen ERA in MLB. However, they did use 2 of their better relievers last night in Jalen Beeks and Brooks Raley, which makes the matchup much more palatable.

Baltimore is 9-1 in the last 10 games that Tyler Wells started. The only loss came by a slim, 2 run margin on the road vs. the best team in baseball (Yankees).

With that in mind, how could we not back the Orioles to win this game tonight? 

If you’re risk averse — I suggest using Baltimore +1.5 run line instead of moneyline, or placing it as a 2nd version. The Orioles are by far the best Run Line team in baseball right now, and it’s not even close. They’re 57-31 ATS with a 16.99% ROI. That’s more than 6 percentage points higher than the 2nd best ATS team (Texas Rangers, 10.6% ROI). Source: evanalytics.com.

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Leg 3: Clayton Kershaw 7+ Ks & Dodgers Win (+130) vs. LAA

To close this out… how could we not fade the Angels (again)? They’ve now lost 11 straight contests when their pitcher is *not* named Shohei Ohtani. Tonight, it is Patrick Sandoval’s turn in the rotation. He’s honestly been decent this year but is no Ohtani.

There are also signs that some negative regression could be imminent for Sandoval. His 2.95 ERA, for example, compares to a 4.22 expected ERA calculated by MLB Statcast. His ERA in his first 3 seasons never dropped below 3.62. Yet right now it’s sitting at 2.95.

Tonight, he’ll be tested by a Dodgers lineup that looks revived since getting Mookie Betts back in the lineup. They secured their 4th straight series win last night and improved to 13-2 in their last 15 games.

Pitching for the Dodgers will be their ace and future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. That’s exciting, but what has me giddy is the fact he’s finally ramped up from a stamina perspective. He’s now thrown 98+ pitches in back-to-back starts. In the 5 starts before that, he had been limited to 81 pitches or less.

With that fact established, here’s why I feel this bet is oozing with value: Betting Clayton Kershaw to whiff 7+ batters is 15-2 since 2021 when he throws 83+ pitches. He also struck out 7+ Angels in 8 of his last 11 matchups vs. them. He’s yet to face the lowly 2022 Angels, but can you imagine the possibilities?

The Slip:

I got +543 odds for this 3-leg parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e. half my normal bet size). Parlaying bets carries an extra degree of risk, so please bet responsibly and best of luck if you decide to ride!

$FML

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