@FastMoneyLabs' MLB Bankroll Builder - 5/16

Leg 1: Detroit Tigers Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-360) vs. TBR

The Tigers are coming off three straight wins, but they were at home vs. a weaker Baltimore Orioles team. Today, they hit the road for a 3-game series in Tampa Bay.

Despite those W’s, Detroit’s offense is limping along, scoring just 2.86 runs per game (dead last in MLB), which drops to 2.08 on the road (by far the worst in MLB). That makes them a fine target for No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets.

Through 35 games, they’ve been held scoreless in the first inning 32 times (91.4% of their games). The 3 times they did score a 1st inning run came in the first 2 weeks of the season. Since then, they’ve been held scoreless in 22 straight as shown below.

FML

Will the Tigers eventually score a 1st inning run on the road? Absolutely. That’s a fact. I’m just not convinced it will happen tonight against Corey Kluber, who has a 19-3 (86.4%) No Run First Inning (NRFI) record since 2020.

Kluber’s coming off a bad start, but it was vs. a much tougher Los Angeles Angels lineup on the road. Now back home against the Tigers, I trust Kluber to hold it down for us as Leg 1.

Leg 2: Baltimore Orioles Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-380) vs. NYY

$FML: “The Detroit Tigers stink in the first inning.”

Baltimore Orioles: “Hold my beer.”

To give credit where it’s due – it doesn’t get much worse than the Tigers, but the Orioles are trying. Through 35 games, they’ve been held scoreless in 32 of 35 (91.4%) first innings (same as the Tigers). At home where they play tonight, they rank dead last in first inning score rate (1 for 16, 6.25%).

Tonight, they’re without one of their best bats in Ryan Mountcastle (out on 10-day IL) and get a tough matchup vs. Luis Severino, who boasts a 7-2 NRFI record since 2019.

The Orioles knocked Severino for 4 runs in 6 innings earlier this year, but Luis didn’t have his best stuff that day. Yet he still held the O’s scoreless for the first 5 innings. All 4 runs he allowed came after the 5th inning.

If the O’s find a way to score tonight, I’ll tip my cap. Till then, I trust Luis Severino to keep us moving along to Leg 3.

FML

Leg 3: Houston Astros +1.5 Run Line (-170) vs. BOS

Riding the hot hand here. The Astros are 20-2 (90.9%) vs. hypothetical +1.5 spreads in their last 22 games. It’s a trend that will eventually reverse. But the Astros should be motivated to keep it rolling tonight vs. the team that knocked them out of the 2021 playoffs.

Red Sox pitcher Garrett Whitlock has been decent but is coming off his worst start of the year – a game where he struggled with control, walking 4 and allowing 3 runs in just 3 innings before getting yanked.

Meanwhile, Astros pitcher Jake Odorizzi is coming off his best start of the year – a 1 hit shutout – and has allowed just 1 run in his last 17.2 innings pitched.

I’m still scratching my head at how Boston is even favored on the Moneyline tonight. It was tempting to back the Astros to win at plus money. But to be safe, I prefer the +1.5 Run Line. Houston hasn’t been losing much but when they do: 4 of their last 6 losses were by a single run.

I got +156 Odds for this 3-Leg Parlay at Bet365 and sized my bet to win a unit (risk 0.64). Parlaying bets carries an extra element of risk. As safe as this bet might sound – please bet responsibly and best of luck!

$FML' Bankroll Builder Parlay

bet365

TIGERS U0.5 1ST INNING RUNS, ORIOLES U0.5 1ST INNING RUNS & ASTROS +1.5 RUN LINE @ +156

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