I’ve been treading lightly with 1st inning bets but have been itching to play one, and when I saw this pitching matchup, I had to write about it! For this pick, I’m targeting a matchup scheduled for a 7:40 PM ET first pitch in Windy City.
I’ve been treading lightly with 1st inning bets but have been itching to play one, and when I saw this pitching matchup, I had to write about it! For this pick, I’m targeting a matchup scheduled for a 7:40 PM ET first pitch in Windy City.
Last year, Left-Handed Pitchers (LHP) posted an impressive 46-19 (70.8%) No Run First Inning (NRFI) record vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. So far in 2022, they’re off to a perfect 2-0 start. Can we trust Cubs southpaw Justin Steele to keep the trend going tonight?
Since joining Chicago’s starting rotation in August 2021, the 26-year-old Lefty has shown flashes of brilliance --- especially in early innings.
Steele’s effectiveness tends taper off after the 1st inning, as shown below in his Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched (WHIP) statistic, split by inning:
It’s never fun fading the Rays offense, but if there’s a time to do it – it’s against a Left-Handed Pitcher in the 1st inning. Admittedly, it could get a little sweaty since Steele has a weird tendency to allow exactly 1 hit in the 1st inning. But when he does, he’s proven effective at managing out of trouble, and that’s what counts.
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CLAIM NOWAssuming we’ll make it through the Top of the 1st, here’s what I expect in the bottom half of the inning:
The Rays are one of a few teams that occasionally use relief pitchers as starters. It’s an unconventional strategy that’s designed to throw off opponents. Managers like to optimize their lineups based on the starting pitching matchup, but when a reliever starts, it adds uncertainty and complexity to the lineup construction process. Tonight, Tampa is deploying that strategy by sending 29-year-old relief pitcher Matt Wisler to start the game.
This year’s Cubs offense is certainly improved, scoring at a 50% clip in their 1st frame through 10 games, but is that hit rate sustainable? I don’t think so.
Also supporting the NRFI is the weather forecast which, according to BallParkPal.com, is favorable for Pitching tonight, based on the cold temperatures and wind considerations. I’m comfortable betting to win a unit on this pick, but I’d be remiss to not mention:
NRFI hit rates have been slightly down to start this season, which gives us reason to be cautious. I don’t suggest betting too heavy on these. When they go wrong, it really stings. That said – when they go right, oh does it feel good, and that’s the feeling I’m going for tonight!
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