Miami jumped on Washington early yesterday. The result is a depleted Nationals bullpen.
Logic suggests this situation should buy Nats starter Josiah Gray some extra leash tonight. And if we’re right, then I love this bet. Here’s why:
Gray faced Miami 4 times in the last two seasons. Here’s how he did with strikeouts (screenshot courtesy of Props.Cash research service):
In those 4 starts, he not only covered this 5+ K line. He smashed through it, finishing with 7+ Ks in all 4 starts.
Don’t let his strikeout numbers fool you, though. He still pitched somewhat poorly. Here’s the same chart, but showing Earned Runs:
Gray allowed 2+ Earned Runs (ER) in all 4 starts vs. Miami , which rises to 3+ ER in the two starts this season.
Gray also has a tendency to pitch worse as the game progresses. String all these facts together with the idea he could pitch longer than usual tonight, and I feel we’ve uncovered a good betting opportunity.
I especially like Miami’s chances at winning with their ace Sandy Alcantara on the hill. He’s been excellent this year and especially vs. Washington. I trust him to hold it down & Miami to strike out just enough to give Gray 5+ Ks without letting him win.
It’s a little counterintuitive betting on a pitcher to get strikeouts and still lose. But the numbers support this bet, which led me to wager to win a unit @ +160, which I feel is a good price.
Bet responsibly guys and best of luck tonight!
