@FastMoneyLabs' NHL Best Bets - 6/7

Don’t look now guys, but we’re heating up (again).

Here’s my best attempt to keep it rolling today.

Mika Zibanejad & Nick Paul 2+ Shots on Goal Each (+102)

Death. Taxes. Mika Zibanejad to record 2+ Shots on Goal (SOG) in the 2022 playoffs.

If you’re wondering why we can still bet this at -430. . . Don’t ask. Because I don’t know.

After landing all 5 of his shot attempts in Game, Zibanejad’s 2+ shot prop record improved to 17-0 in the playoffs. One might argue he’s due for an Under soon (which of course is possible), but as I’ve said many times — the dominant hit rate we’re observing is easy to explain and far from a fluke.

When Zibanejad attempts at least 4 shots — as he’s done in literally every postseason game — this 2+ shots prop is 66-9 (88%) in the 2021/22 regular season + playoffs. The expected betting odds for an 88% probability event are -733. I’ll take -430.

To bring our parlay odds into reasonable betting range, I combined Zibanejad 2+ shots with a bet that Tampa Bay’s Nick Paul will do the same.

Paul recorded 2+ shots in 9 of his last 12 (75%) games now. The rising hit rate corresponds with Paul getting a more prominent role in the Bolts Top 6 forward group after Brayden Point’s injury. The injury situation is unfortunate, but needless to say — Nick Paul is capitalizing on the extra minutes.

For our parlay, I prefer the safety of 2+ shots, but if you’re feeling risky — I like Paul to get 3+ SOG tonight at plus money. Last game, he attempted 5, but 3 missed the net. If he attempts 5+ shots again, I like his chances to get 3+ on target tonight (assuming a slightly higher degree of shooting accuracy tonight).

$FML' Best Bet #1

fanduel

MIKE ZIBANEJAD & NICK PAUL 2+ SHOTS ON GOAL EACH @ +102

Alex Killorn to Score (+320)

I strongly considered adding Killorn 2+ shots as a 3rd leg to my SOG parlay. He’s playing excellent and cashing his 2+ SOG prop consistently as a result (9-1 in his L10).

FlashPicks isn’t paying me to recommend easy bets like that though, because what fun is that? We’re in the business of cashing tickets, but we’re also hunting for previously undetected value. Which is why my sights are set on Killorn to score a goal tonight at +320.

Before locking this in, you should know that Alex Killorn has not scored a goal in literally 20 games. It’s been 47 days since this bet last cashed on (April 21st).

So why are we betting it? The answer lies in the principles of physics. What goes up must come down; and what goes down must come up. And contrary to what tonight’s betting odds suggest, Alex Killorn is not immune to physics. The dude is due to score. Here’s why:

  • He’s shooting more, but scoring less. Tell me how that makes sense?
  • His line is absolutely dominating puck possession in 5v5. Through 3 games, they’re the only forward group garnering 65%+ of shot attempts when they’re on the ice in even strength (i.e. not a Power Play or Penalty Kill).
  • They’re also generating tons of scoring chances. According to NaturalStatTrick.com, the Lightning had 34 scoring chances when Killorn was on the ice vs. just 16 scoring chances against. Those stats make Killorn the only forward on either team that can say he’s getting 67%+ of scoring chances when he’s on the ice.
  • That’s very good, but what’s even better (and crazier) is the fact that 17 of those 34 scoring chances were classified as High-Danger scoring chances.

So you’re telling me Killorn is shooting more, generating scoring chances, and 50% of them are of the high-danger variety? Yet his line has still failed to score and has 0 total points in the series?

He might not score tonight — in fact, there’s a good chance he won’t (+320 odds imply there’s only a 23.8% chance this bet cashes). That said — when the signs flash this brightly that a 25-goal scorer like Mr. Killorn is due break his scoreless streak soon. You best believe FastMoneyLabs will be betting on it and highlighting why on FlashPicks.

He might not have a goal since April 21st. But the dude was a 25-goal scorer this year. What goes down must come up. And Alex Killorn is not immune to physics.

Bet responsibly guys and good luck tonight!

$FML' Best Bet #2

fanduel

ALEX KILLORN TO SCORE @ +320

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