Death. Taxes. Mika Zibanejad to record 2+ Shots on Goal (SOG) in the 2022 playoffs.
If you’re wondering why we can still bet this at -430. . . Don’t ask. Because I don’t know.
After landing all 5 of his shot attempts in Game, Zibanejad’s 2+ shot prop record improved to 17-0 in the playoffs. One might argue he’s due for an Under soon (which of course is possible), but as I’ve said many times — the dominant hit rate we’re observing is easy to explain and far from a fluke.
When Zibanejad attempts at least 4 shots — as he’s done in literally every postseason game — this 2+ shots prop is 66-9 (88%) in the 2021/22 regular season + playoffs. The expected betting odds for an 88% probability event are -733. I’ll take -430.
To bring our parlay odds into reasonable betting range, I combined Zibanejad 2+ shots with a bet that Tampa Bay’s Nick Paul will do the same.
Paul recorded 2+ shots in 9 of his last 12 (75%) games now. The rising hit rate corresponds with Paul getting a more prominent role in the Bolts Top 6 forward group after Brayden Point’s injury. The injury situation is unfortunate, but needless to say — Nick Paul is capitalizing on the extra minutes.
For our parlay, I prefer the safety of 2+ shots, but if you’re feeling risky — I like Paul to get 3+ SOG tonight at plus money. Last game, he attempted 5, but 3 missed the net. If he attempts 5+ shots again, I like his chances to get 3+ on target tonight (assuming a slightly higher degree of shooting accuracy tonight).