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@FastMoneyLabs’ Parlay of the Week - 4/29

Leg 1: San Diego Padres -0.5 (First 5 Innings) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitching tonight will be Yu Darvish (1-1, 4.43) for the Padres vs. Zach Thompson (0-2, 10.80) for the Pirates. I wish they were all this easy.

In limited lifetime action vs. Thompson, San Diego’s roster is 6 for 17 (0.353) lifetime with a triple, home run, 4 walks and just 1 strikeout. Even Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove is 1 for 3 lifetime vs. him with a double. That’s crazy. I didn’t include his At Bats in the first stat I quoted (since pitchers no longer hit), but you get the point.

Conversely, the Pirates’ roster is just 11 for 56 (0.196) lifetime vs. Darvish. That’s bad. It gets worse. According to MLB Statcast, some of those hits were lucky. Using the expected batting average statistic (xBA), their xBA was only 0.154 in those at bats — 42 points below their actual batting average.

This year’s Padres are 12-8 (60%) vs. the First 5 Innings Run Line. When Darvish starts, they’re 2-1.

Meanwhile the Pirates are 9-10 (47%) vs. the First 5 Innings Run Line. When Thompson starts, they’re 1-2.

One last stat before I move to Leg 2: I noticed Pirates’ starter Zach Thompson has allowed a 1st inning run in 6 straight starts (including last season). It’s a trend ripe for reversal soon, but if he wants to keep it going tonight — I won’t be too mad.

Leg 2: Matt Brash (SEA) 6+ Strikeouts vs. Miami Marlins

It’s not fully pulling through to his stats yet, since his first 3 starts were vs. strikeout averse teams (White Sox, Astros, Royals). Yet he still whiffed 5+ in 2 of those 3 starts.

Tonight, he draws the better end of the stick with a dream matchup vs. Miami, whose projected lineup features 7 players with Strikeout Rates >23% vs. RHPs in 2022 (per Lineups are subject to change of course, but it shouldn’t matter vs. this Marlins team, which ranks near the top of MLB in K%.

I’ve had this spot circled since reading David Adler’s article. It’s an absolute smash spot for the nastiest pitcher you’ve never heard of, and I need all the action I can get on it for Leg 2.

To be safe, you could consider using his 5+ K’s prop, which hit in 2 of his 3 starts. Tonight’s matchup is easier than the first 3, which led me to prefer 6+ Ks at plus money odds (available at time of writing).

Leg 3: Adam Wainwright (STL) 5+ Strikeouts & STL Win vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

This bet is available on FanDuel in the Player Performance Doubles section.

Wainwright is coming off a bad start — a somewhat rare occurrence for him. He allowed 4 runs on 8 hits in 5 innings, striking out only 3 vs. Cincinnati, a team that normally strikes out a lot.

That performance set up a nice buy-low spot on Wainwright props tonight, and I’m eager to take advantage.

Before that bad start, he had 3 straight games with 6+ strikeouts. Tonight, he gets an easy matchup vs. a Diamondbacks team with the 2nd highest K% vs. RHPs in MLB (26.5%).

8 of 14 (57%) Right-Handed Pitchers whiffed 5+ Diamondbacks in their starts this year.

To improve the potential payout of our bet, I paired the strikeout prop with a bet the Cardinals will win the game. Feels like low-hanging fruit against Diamondbacks pitcher Madison Bumgarner, a left-handed-pitcher, considering this year’s Cardinals are the best hitting team vs. LHPs, as measured by weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+) and weighted On Base Average (wOBA).

The Cardinals projected lineup also has nice lifetime numbers vs. Madison Bumgarner. Whereas the Diamondbacks numbers vs. Wainwright are abysmal. And you’re telling me we can bet this at plus money odds tonight? Sign me up.

$FML Friday Parlay

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Padres -0.5 1st Innings, Brash 6+ Strikeouts & Wainwright 5+ Strikeouts @ +1080
$1,000 BONUS

I got +1080 Odds on this Parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook this morning (odds subject to change) and sized my bet to win 5 units! (risk 0.46 units).

Just FYI: the implied probability of cashing a ticket at +1080 odds is just 8.5%. My analysis suggests it’s a little higher than that for these 3-legs, which led me to place the bet. Even still, it’s a risky wager. Please bet responsibly!

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