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$FML's (+1249) Friday Night MLB Parlay - 4/7

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Leg 1: Adley Rutschman to Score a Run (+120) vs. New York Yankees

We hit this prop Opening Day, it was sweat-free (and fun), but he’s only scored once since then! Last year as a rookie, he scored in > 50% of appearances. That percentage should at least flat line this year, if not improve. However, he hasn’t crossed the plate in 4 straight games now. Meanwhile it’s Opening Day at Camden Yards, a divisional rival is in town, and Clarke Schmidt isn’t the best Yankees pitcher. Nice time and price to buy the dip @ +120.

Leg 2: Astros 1st 5 Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-120) vs. Minnesota Twins

Minnesota starter Sonny Gray delivered a SCORELESS GEM last week. Or did he?

  • 4 walks + 3 hits allowed in 5 full innings yet didn’t allow a run?
  • 0.176 batting average allowed on balls in play (BABIP)?! Smells fishy considering (1) that number was 0.277+ in each of the last 3 seasons & (2) BABIP is UP league-wide this year on banned shifts.
  • 35% ground ball rate? Career low, continuing a concerning, downward trend (51.1% in 2020, 47.2% in 2021, 44.5% last year, 35.3% now).
  • Less ground balls = more line drives and fly balls… unless you’re striking people out. Spoiler alert: he wasn’t. Only 1 K in 22 batters faced.
  • And rising line drive + fly ball rates are concerning for Gray as a finesse pitcher who got hit hard despite only allowing 3 hits (average exit velocity 95.5 MPH on balls in play).

Too long / didn’t read: Gray’s career track record is borderline elite, but his current 0.00 ERA smells like a catfish! In more ways than one. Most metrics besides ERA are flashing red. And the 0.00 ERA absolutely looks sexy on paper. Just don’t invite it to dinner & expect a good date!

Leg 3: Angels 1st 5 Innings Team Total over 2.5 (-105) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Fading Toronto Starter Chris Bassitt

  • 11 earned runs in 17.2 IP spring training
  • 9 earned runs in 3.1 IP last week
  • Expected stats, account for exit velocity and launch angle of balls in play, indicate it could’ve been worse
  • He consistently fares worse on the road (4.45 lifetime ERA vs. 2.68 at home)
  • Angels offense currently ranks 4th in first 5 innings runs per game (4.00)
  • It’s their home opener, and more often than not… teams are covering F5 TTs in home openers this year

Leg 4: Dodgers 1st 5 Innings Team Total over 2.5 (-140) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Hate to drag this into two late games, but how could we not?! My ankles are pure black and blue from kicking myself after not fading Madison Bumgarner in LA last week. What did we do to deserve a 2nd chance so quickly? Don’t know, don’t care. I’m not missing it!

Honestly there’s a lot to like here. Tempting to take a player prop (Will Smith RBI, for example), but given we don’t have lineups yet, I’ll take the low hanging fruit. They scored 5 off Mad Bum in the FIRST inning last week.

If we lose on this, I’ll tip my cap!

The Slip

I got +1249 for the 4-leg parlay and risked 0.25 units to win a little over 3u!

I also placed and recommend small straight bets on each leg (risk up to 0.5 units each), ya know, just in case!

Absolutely love these bets, but parlays are a high-risk / high-reward strategy. Please bet responsibly if tailing! Cheers and good luck, comrades.

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