The Kansas City Royals take on the Minnesota Twins at home in a division matchup that doesn’t really have playoff implications anymore. The Twins just lost four of the five games in a five-game series against the Guardians and now are seven games back of the division lead. They also have the White Sox in front of them just four games back, but the Guardians and White Sox play this week, so one of those teams will be winning every day. As you can see, the Twins are essentially out of the playoff race now while the Royals have been out of it for a while now. But the Twins recently were eliminated (at least in my head) so they should be a little more down on themselves and not caring while the Royals have been playing for themselves for a long time now.
The Twins have been dominating this season series, they are 12-4 against the Royals this season but they are just 4-2 in Kansas City. The Twins have actually won seven straight games between these teams, but I think that ends tonight. The Twins are 11-18 in the last 30 days, but they are 3-12 on the road. The Royals are just 9-16 in the last 30 days, but they are better at home at 5-7. Neither bullpen has been great lately. The Twins are ranked just 18th in the last 30 days while the Royals are ranked 24th in the last 30 days. That is more of a problem for the Twins because they invested so much in their bullpen at the trade deadline. They traded for Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer at the trade deadline, yet their bullpen is still ranked in the bottom half of the league in the last 30 days. That is a problem, and one of the main reasons they are losing right now.
Zack Greinke is starting for the Royals today and he has been very good at home this season going 4-2 with a 1.93 ERA. He has two very good starts against the Twins this season and one blowup start, but the blowup start was on the road. Dylan Bundy has been much worse on the road this season going 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA. He faced the Royals for the first time this season in his last rotation turn, and he allowed two runs in four innings.
I like the value in the Royals at home here.