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John Bollman's MLB Bet of the Day - 5/28

Astros @ Mariners

The Houston Astros will take on their division rivals in the Seattle Mariners in a late-night matchup Saturday night in Seattle. The Mariners won the first game of this series, and they did it in spectacular fashion hitting four home runs off Justin Verlander. However, I think there is a bit of recency bias after last night’s win. The Mariners have been seriously struggling this season losing seven of their last 10 games with a record of 19-27 overall. The Houston Astros on the other hand have a 29- 17 record and they have won six of their last 10 games. The Mariners are much better at home and the Astros are much worse on the road, but the Astros still aren’t far removed from that double digit win streak, and they are healthy. The Mariners are getting healthy again too with Kyle Lewis returning from the IL recently and hitting one of the home runs last night, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets tonight off.

Jose Urquidy is starting for the Astros, and he actually struggled in his first start against the Mariners this season. However, he is 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in May and he is coming off his best start of the season. Logan Gilbert has yet to face the Astros this season, but he has also pitched very well. He was 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA in April so he was due for some regression, and that is happening as he is now 1-2 with a 4.25 ERA in May. Most notably, he has walked multiple batters in six straight outings, and that is a problem against an Astros team that can make you pay. He also has reverse splits, so he has actually pitched much worse at home this season than on the road.

However, one of the main things that is pushing me over the edge is the Astros bullpen. The Astros have the top ranked bullpen in the league this season, and they have everyone rested and available to pitch. The Mariners are ranked 24th in the league in bullpen ERA, although they were able to save most of their best bullpen arms. These teams have played seven games already this season with the Mariners going 3-1 at home, however I think that just means it’s more likely to even out. Take the Astros on the road at close to a pick ‘em.

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