@KeepTheJuice21 +1990 Home Run Parlay & Pick - 7/14

+1990 Home Run Parlay

We’re calling up the heavy hitters, this home run parlay is bound to hit any day now. I’ll admit I was tempted to run with the Altuve and Judge combination, the big and short guy is always a fun look. But Rizzo is the man today. The lefty will have the platoon advantage against Luis Castillo, the starter for the Reds. He’ll have a solid chance against the starter but the real value is once we get to the bullpen. The Reds bullpen ranks worst in the MLB by almost every metric, including ERA and walks and are second highest in home runs given up at 51 this season. Rizzo has great value on the Caesars book so be sure to lock in there.

Jose Altuve is not your typical power hitter. His 5’6 frame is one of the smallest in the MLB but the second baseman has managed 17 home runs this season, 9 of which came away from home. Batting right handed against the lefty starter Reid Detmers will serve him well. Detmers is on the high end of the league with 11 home runs against him this season. That’s often the case with hard throwing young pitchers. Altuve will have a great chance to get one over the fence today.

Anthony Rizzo / Jose Altuve | +1990 at Caesars Sportsbook

Milwaukee Brewers (49-40) @ San Francisco Giants (45-42)

This is the lowest total on the slate today and for good reason. Corbin Burnes is having an excellent season and is actually pitching his best on the road. Carlos Rodon is the clear ace for the Giants this year with a 2.7 ERA, and 2.1 at home. You can see why the number is so low. But neither bullpen is particularly special. Milwaukee has the advantage there but neither rank in the top third of the league by ERA.

In his last start Rodon went a full 9 innings and threw 112 pitches, something he’s very unlikely to do again only 5 days later. Burnes has similarly thrown long games recently but nothing quite as extreme as that.

As far as hitting, the Brewers are inconsistent but scoring 4 is not a big ask that they should be up to. The Giants have a similar story, hard to predict but they have hit really well lately, averaging 5.75 runs over the last 8 games. The biggest point in favor here is just that the total is so low. The lineups are too good for such a low number.

Over 6.5 @ -110

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